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Why fertility has fallen everywhere in the world

2026-04-18 16:46:59Lifestyle SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Why fertility has fallen everywhere in the world
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Over the past half century, fertility rates have fallen in almost every country in the world, suggesting that there is a common factor influencing this global trend.

As women have gained more autonomy and decision-making freedom, a mismatch has emerged between what they need to fully benefit from this independence and the credible commitments that men and institutions can provide.

In the US and many countries in Europe and Asia, the decline in fertility has become a hot topic in recent years, but in fact this is a global and long-term phenomenon.

In more than half of the 193 UN countries - representing about two-thirds of the world's population - the fertility rate has already fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

One of the biggest demographic surprises of modern times is that there is a negative relationship between per capita income and fertility: the more economically developed a country is, the lower its birth rates tend to be.

Economists have proposed different explanations for this phenomenon: lack of access to contraception in poor countries, or the increase in the "total cost" of raising children in rich countries, where parents invest more in education, health and welfare.

But these explanations have not fully explained the global trend.

Even with the spread of modern contraception, the decline in fertility has continued, indicating that the main factor lies elsewhere.

Essentially, the decision to have children requires not only family planning tools, but also desire and assurance that the children will be properly supported.

According to economic analyses, the main factor behind the decline in fertility is the increase in women's autonomy, coupled with the uncertainty of whether they can fully rely on their partners or the state for child-rearing and economic stability.

For a woman who has more education and career opportunities, a key question is whether her partner will realistically share the burden of housework and childcare.

In the absence of this insurance, many women choose to postpone or forgo childbearing to maintain professional independence.

The mismatch between women's expectations and men's commitments—often described as the difference between "reliable fathers" and those who are less involved—directly contributes to the decline in fertility.

In the US, this trend has been exacerbated by the fact that women have had increasing opportunities for higher education, employment, and later marriage. Meanwhile, men's role in sharing family responsibilities has not changed at the same pace.

In other countries, declining fertility rates are also linked to the rapid pace of economic development. When societies transition rapidly from traditional to modern economies, cultural and gender changes fail to keep pace.

In these cases, men tend to remain more attached to traditional norms, while women benefit more from changes towards equality and independence. This creates even more differences in expectations within the family.

One indicator of this is the division of household chores: in developed countries with rapid modernization, men do significantly less housework and care compared to women.

In summary, the global decline in fertility is closely related to the increase in women's autonomy, but also to the lack of adaptation of men and institutions to this new reality.

If societies do not provide sufficient support - such as childcare, family policies or a fairer division of responsibilities - then fertility tends to decline further.

But if these guarantees are improved, women's autonomy may not lead to fewer children, but rather to more stable, productive, and balanced families.


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