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Turkey is blocking NATO expansion. What are the consequences?

2023-03-05 22:10:20Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Turkey is blocking NATO expansion. What are the consequences?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meets with the Swedish and Finnish foreign ministers in July 2022. A NATO diplomat told CNN that it is likely that Finland will break away from Sweden and go for membership alone.

When Sweden and Finland announced their intention to join NATO last May, it seemed like an eyesore for Russia. Historically, both countries have been neutral and have not approached the Alliance, to avoid provoking Moscow. The invasion of Ukraine changed things.

Finland and Sweden, along with their NATO allies, expect to be part of the July 11 summit. However, one big obstacle is in the way: Turkey, which has not yet given its blessing.

But Turkey is not the only country blocking change: Hungary has also not given the "yes" to the Nordics, further muddying the waters. But now, Turkey's "yes" is more important.

Unfortunately, for the pro-NATO group, compromise with Turkey seems difficult.

Officially, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, opposes the membership of Sweden and Finland, for security reasons, according to him. He says both countries, although more so Sweden, are harboring militants from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a group designated as a terrorist in Turkey, Sweden, the United States and Europe. Erdogan says he would like these individuals extradited; Sweden has made it clear that this will not happen.

NATO diplomats are divided on how long Turkey will last.

"The image he has created of a strongman who delivers results for the Turkish people has been destroyed," explains Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute's Turkey program. "There is a lot of anti-Western and anti-Kurdish sentiment in Turkey at the moment. This is a good theme for him to beat his own drum on, and a dramatic twist would make him look weaker.”

Tol believes there are other reasons Erdogan does not want to upset Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Russia has always been vital to Turkey's economy. Without Russian money, Erdogan would not be able to raise wages, would not help students. He is now promising massive post-earthquake reconstruction. So Russia is still attractive to him," he said. Tol.

Like many Western officials, Tol believes that Turks believing that Sweden and Finland are harboring terrorists is Erdogan's proper excuse for not being involved in NATO decision-making.

While no big change is likely to come from the three-party talks on Thursday, there is talk of how much political capital Erdogan can spend after the election, if he wins.

First, the optimists.

This group includes Sweden, Finland and some of the states that border Russia or lived under the Soviet sphere. They believe that Turkey, which benefits greatly from being part of NATO, will ultimately do what is in its best interest and drop the objections.

For that to happen, officials are preparing for Turkey to make more realistic demands than handing over individuals it considers terrorists, such as lifting sanctions or allowing the US to buy Turkey much-needed fighter jets. keep its air force to date.

"On the way to membership, only"

Ultimately, the optimists believe there is a compromise that heavily favors NATO. The alliance, Sweden and Finland have presented their case and NATO has an open door policy for any country that wants to join. Sweden and Finland have more than met the criteria, so non-membership is a mockery of the alliance – one in which Turkey benefits from being a member. A NATO official told CNN they assumed Erdogan would wait for the summit before agreeing so he could enjoy "the praise of all his Western allies."

The much larger group among officials who spoke to CNN are pessimistic. They think the chances of Erdogan changing his position before July 11 are as good as zero and are already thinking beyond this summit.

"I think it's more and more likely that Finland will break away from Sweden and just go for membership," a NATO diplomat told CNN.

Other members of the alliance still see a real prospect of an impasse between the two countries and are considering how NATO can best handle such a scenario.

Many NATO officials and diplomats told CNN that the danger here is blocking Turkey, which feeds the Kremlin's narrative that the West and NATO are divided. The alliance's task at that point will be to make it clear that even if they are not members, Finland and Sweden are now effectively in step with NATO. They may not be members, but they are as close partners as it gets - and they are no longer neutral.

Even if Turkey changes its mind, Hungary remains. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has stated that he is not opposed to countries joining NATO, but has always found ways to prevent the decision.

Orban has several reasons for this. Both of these countries have criticized Hungary for leadership. In an interview he said "how can we make allies of someone who has spread lies about Hungary?".

Orban is considered the European leader closest to Putin. Katalin Cseh, a Hungarian member of the European Parliament, described Orban's move as an "honor for Putin". She believes that Orban has a decade invested in copying and creating a Putinist model, and any kind of NATO victory against Putin damages his regime.

It is possible that Orbán is delaying the decision to take concessions from other EU member states, where Hungary has been accused of violating all kinds of EU laws. The result has been the withholding of EU funds and scorn from the bloc. While NATO and the EU are separate entities, they share many members and it is likely that bilateral diplomacy could see some give and take between Hungary and its EU counterparts.

However, despite Orban's procrastination, it is assumed that if Turkey can agree, Hungary will drop its opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

The irony is not lost on many that one of the main reasons Putin gave for invading Ukraine was to stop what he claimed was NATO expansion. That his aggression may have pushed a historically non-aligned country into NATO is still seen by most in the West as a major own goal by the Kremlin.

Until an agreement is reached, however, the future of the alliance remains somewhat up in the air. Finland and Sweden have effectively taken sides since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. It seems unlikely that they would return to a position of neutrality if the war were to end suddenly.

The danger to NATO and the wider Western alliance comes if they fail to join the alliance altogether and the Kremlin can use it for propaganda purposes. If that happens, even if the war ends abruptly, the narrative of a divided West will continue to be a drumbeat for NATO's opponents to beat./CNN


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