The German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and the public broadcasters WDR and NDR announced today that the German military (Bundeswehr) and the BND secret service have made a new assessment of the security situation in Europe. This assessment is currently circulating in security circles in Berlin, writes Süddeutsche Zeitung.
In their latest report, analysts paint a bleak picture regarding Moscow's ambitions.
Russia sees itself in a systems conflict with the West and is willing to realize its imperialist goals with military force – even beyond Ukraine.
Although there are currently no signs of an “imminent confrontation between Russia and NATO,” the document states, Russia is likely to create all the prerequisites for waging a “large-scale conventional war” by the end of the decade. The war that has lasted for more than three years in Ukraine is not weakening Russian forces.
Despite sanctions, Russia is able to prepare militarily in such a way that it could soon attack a NATO country. The Kremlin can not only compensate for the huge losses in personnel and materials in Ukraine, but even further advance its armaments.
According to the assessment of the situation, the war economy is producing more than what is needed for the war against Ukraine. Moreover, Vladimir Putin has ordered his armed forces to increase by 2026 to up to 1.5 million soldiers, reports Süddeutsche Zeitung, citing a document from the German army and secret service.
The newspaper further writes that BND president Bruno Kahl warned last November that his agency saw a possible Russian attack on a NATO country within a few years as a realistic risk.
According to Kahl, senior military officials in Moscow doubt whether NATO would remain united in the event of an attack by Russia. Thus, according to Kahl, the risk that Russia will test this scenario, for example with a limited attack on the Baltic states, is increasing.