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The main events in 2024, according to "The Economist" / From elections that affect 4.2 billion people to the change of energy powers

2024-05-20 09:49:13Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Life goes by fast, regardless of what's happening, whether it's armed conflict, the redrawing of the global map of energy resources, or the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI). The world is changing at breakneck speed. From the situation in the Middle East, the adoption of electric vehicles to the treatment of obesity, things look very different compared to the way we looked at them a year or two ago. The Economist has listed 10 of the main events that are expected to accompany the world during 2024.

1. The elections!

Elections around the world will, for many, bring into focus the global state of democracy. There will be more than 70 pairs of elections in 2024, in countries where about 4.2 billion people live, and for the first time about half of the world's population is affected. But while there is more voting than ever before, there is not necessarily more democracy, as many elections will be neither free nor fair.

Chosen in America, with global effects

Voters and courts will give their verdict on Donald Trump, who has a 1 in 3 chance of winning the presidency. The outcome may be determined by a few tens of thousands of voters, in a handful of states. But the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. Indeed, Russian election rigging may mean that Vladimir Putin's fate depends more on American than Russian voters.

2. Europe must rise again

For the above reasons, Europe should speed up and provide Ukraine with the military and economic support it needs for a long war, while charting a path to eventual membership in the European Union. This is the right thing to do, while also taking the necessary steps to be prepared if Trump regains power and withdraws support for Ukraine.

3. Unrest in the Middle East

Hamas's attack on Israel and Israel's retaliation against Gaza have upended the region's calm and disproved the idea that the world can continue to ignore the plight of the Palestinians. Will it turn into a wider regional conflict, or will it offer a new chance for peace? For America, the global superpower, it is also a test of whether it can adapt to a more complex and threatening world.

4. The world, facing a multipolar disorder

America's plan to turn to Asia and focus more on its rivalry with China has been derailed by the war in Ukraine and now Gaza. Russia, too, is confused and losing influence. Frozen conflicts are thawing and local cold wars are heating up around the world. Instability in the Sahel region of Africa is growing. The world is bracing for more conflict now that America's "unipolar moment" is over.

5. Another cold war

As economic growth in China slows, tensions rise over Taiwan, and America continues to restrict Chinese access to advanced technologies, the rhetoric of the "new cold war" has hardened. But Western companies trying to reduce their supply chains' dependence on China will find this much easier said than done. Meanwhile, both camps will attract "middle powers", not only for their green resources.

6. A new energy geography

The clean energy transition is creating new green superpowers and redrawing the energy resource map. Lithium, copper and nickel are much more important, while oil and gas, and the regions that dominate their supply, are less important. The competition for green resources is reshaping geopolitics and trade, and creating some unexpected winners and losers. Meanwhile, a war is being waged among voters who view climate-friendly policies as an elite conspiracy against ordinary people.

7. Economic uncertainties

Developed economies performed better than expected in 2023, but are not yet at full capacity, as interest rates will remain "high for a while longer" and will be painful for companies and consumers, even if recessions are avoided. Most at risk is China, which could face deflation.

8. Artificial Intelligence becomes a reality

Businesses are adopting AI, regulators are regulating it, and technicians are continuing to improve it. Debate will intensify over the best regulatory approach and whether arguments about "existential risk" are a hoax, from which those in power benefit. Unexpected uses and abuses will continue to emerge. Concerns abound about the effect of Artificial Intelligence on the workplace and the potential for election interference. His biggest influence so far? Faster coding.

9. A united world

Perhaps ideological differences will be put aside as the world enjoys the Paris Olympics, astronauts orbiting the moon, the European Football Championship, or the cricket World Cup. The odds are slim, but there are those who hope for global unity.


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