On the night of January 2, protected by darkness, the Russian submarine Novorossiysk B-61 passed under the Rock of Gibraltar and entered the Atlantic.
The destination will be the Baltics.
With its "exit," Moscow no longer has any conventional "submarines" left in the Mediterranean Sea. This does not rule out, experts warn, the possibility of having a nuclear-armed ship, but the symbolic/tactical value of the departure remains.
The departure of the Russian submarines was explained by observers as a consequence of the end of the Assad regime in Syria. A collapse that has caused great uncertainty about the future of the bases used by Russia in the country, such as the airports of Tartus and Latakia, the Hmeimim airbase and a number of smaller outposts.
The installations made available by Damascus represented the strong point of the permanent Mediterranean Task Force created by Russia in 2013, a core composed of numerous units.
Putin currently has half a dozen on the high seas: among them several frigates, the intelligence ship Kildin, a pair of amphibious assault ships. Other merchant ships have been waiting for days, always with the aim of a possible deportation, while the Yantar, a research “ship” capable of carrying out special activities and espionage, has left Alexandria in Egypt.
The B-61, which has carried out numerous missions in recent months, is considered a quality tool, indispensable for the Navy's activities along sensitive routes, in a phase where threats are multiplying and a challenge is developing "on the bottom".
However, he needs a landing site, which is not available at the moment, while his potential replacements are still far away and it is not clear whether they will be sent to the area. Much will depend on the negotiations opened by the Kremlin with the new power in an attempt to preserve installations where the presence had been reduced due to the heavy commitment in Ukraine.
At the same time, the contingent command began a "regrouping" by concentrating soldiers and vehicles in both Tartus and Hmeimim. A good number of sophisticated equipment (radars, anti-aircraft missiles) were loaded onto large An 124 and Il 76 aircraft, which then departed for al Khadima, Cyrenaica, Libya.
Before Christmas there was a steady flow of flights to this destination, although some planes later arrived in Bamako, Mali, an important hub for the Kremlin's penetration of the Sahel.
Diplomatic sources have not ruled out the possibility that Moscow may seek an agreement with General Khalifa Haftar, the leader of Cyrenaica, to establish structures on the Libyan coast.
However, the airports need to be expanded. This is compounded by Western pressure on Haftar, who already has former Wagner formations on his territory to resist his opponents.