American support for Israel has taken a sharp turn, almost two years after the start of the Gaza war, with a large portion of voters expressing very negative opinions about the Israeli government's handling of the conflict, according to a new poll by the New York Times and the University of Siena.
Following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, American voters generally sympathized more with the Israelis than with the Palestinians, with 47% siding with Israel and 20% siding with the Palestinians. In the new poll, 34% said they supported Israel, while 35% supported the Palestinians. A similar proportion said they were undecided or supported both sides equally.
More than half of American voters now oppose sending further economic and military aid to Israel, a surprising turnaround in public opinion since the Oct. 7 attacks. About 6 in 10 voters said Israel should stop its military campaign, even if Israeli hostages are not released or Hamas is not eliminated. Meanwhile, 40% of voters believe Israel is deliberately killing civilians in Gaza, nearly double the number in the 2023 poll.
The poll results show a sharp deterioration in support for a close American ally that has enjoyed bipartisan support for decades. This change is unusually large over a long period, at a time when public opinion typically shifts gradually, unless dramatic events such as war occur.
Austin Mugleston, a Democrat from Idaho, said his views on American support for Israel have weakened as the conflict has dragged on. “I was very pro-Israel in recent years, especially after the terrorist night of October 7,” he said. “But as long as it’s been going on and as badly as the Palestinians are being treated, it no longer feels like fair play.”
The survey also points to challenges for the US-Israel alliance in the future. Israel has been the largest recipient of US foreign aid since its founding in 1948, receiving hundreds of billions of dollars.
Younger voters, regardless of party, are less likely to support continuing this aid. Nearly 7 in 10 voters under 30 oppose further economic or military aid.
Much of the change in attitudes toward Israel has come from declining support among Democratic voters. Republicans continue to largely support Israel, although there has been a slight decline.
Nearly two years ago, Democrats were evenly split, with 34% sympathizing with Israel and 31% with the Palestinians. Now, the vast majority of Democrats support the Palestinians, with 54% sympathizing more with the Palestinians, while only 13% feel more empathy for Israel.
More than 8 in 10 Democrats said Israel should stop the war, even if it fails to achieve its goals. A significant increase from about 60% two years ago.
Nearly 6 in 10 Democrats believe Israel is intentionally killing civilians, twice as many as in 2023.
Shannon Carey, 39, a Democrat from Connecticut, said the Israeli government's response to the initial attacks on October 7 had become "unreasonable." She wants the U.S. to stop military and financial aid to Israel because, she said, it is funding a "humanitarian crisis."
“As a mother, seeing those children is terrifying,” she said. “This is not war. This is genocide.”
The biggest shift within the Democratic Party has come from an unexpected group: white, educated, older Democrats, who have been the party's mainstay in recent elections. Younger Democrats and those without college degrees have been more pro-Palestinian since the beginning of the conflict.
In 2023, Democrats over 45 were twice as likely to sympathize with Israel as they were with the Palestinians. Now it's the opposite, with 42% saying they sympathize more with the Palestinians and just 17% with Israel.
Republican voters, on the other hand, largely support President Trump. While many Western countries have moved to recognize a Palestinian state, Trump has maintained a close relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Seven in 10 Republicans said they support additional aid to Israel. Most think Israel should continue the military campaign until all hostages are released, even if there are civilian casualties. While 47% say the Israeli military is taking sufficient measures to avoid civilian deaths.
“The Israelis can defend themselves, but we have to make sure no one attacks them,” said Edward Johnson, 51, a conservative from Minneapolis who voted for Trump. However, Republican support has also fallen, but to a lesser extent.
Republicans still sympathize more with Israel than with the Palestinians, 64% to 9%. But that's a 12 percentage point drop from 2023, when 76% supported Israel.
About a third of Republicans think the Israeli military is not doing enough to prevent civilian deaths.