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The war in Ukraine, DW analysis: Why did Russia's plans fail?

2022-12-28 08:47:35Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The war in Ukraine, DW analysis: Why did Russia's plans fail?

Before the invasion of Ukraine, many predicted a quick victory for Russia. But it turned out differently. Ukraine is successfully resisting in all areas. But why?

When Russia massed its troops along the border with Ukraine about a year ago, many experts and politicians in the West believed that Kiev would fall within days if invaded. Russia was also convinced of this. The aggression began, Russian troops advanced and came to the outskirts of the capital in the first days of the war. But they were stopped by the Ukrainian army and forced to retreat. Misjudgments still exist to this day. Russian President Vladimir Putin does not directly admit this, but in early December he was preparing his country for a long war.

Russia does not have air supremacy

There are many things that were expected at the beginning of February 2022, but did not materialize. Russia expected to destroy both Ukraine's air force and air defense very quickly and thus have complete air supremacy. The reason for this assumption may have been the experience in eastern Ukraine. When the war in Donbas broke out in 2014, in which Russia has denied involvement, Ukraine lost many planes and helicopters in the first months and then did not use the remaining planes and helicopters. The Ukrainian Air Force was virtually eliminated.

But the situation is completely different from the intervention in February. The news of the Ministry of Defense in Moscow on February 28, according to which Russia had air sovereignty over the entire territory of Ukraine, turned out to be false. The Russian Air Force is superior to the Ukrainian Air Force in terms of numbers and technology. But despite multiple missile attacks on military airfields and on the frontline, Ukraine still has fighter jets and helicopters intact. Meanwhile, Ukraine's air defense is being strengthened.

According to Ukrainian sources, Russia has lost hundreds of aircraft and helicopters since the beginning of the war. This information cannot be independently confirmed. However, the Western secret services also announce large losses of the Russian air force. It is now confined to the front line and no longer operates deep into the interior of the country. Instead, Russia is increasingly using drones and missiles, which are being detected and shot down with increasing success by Ukraine's air defenses. This thanks primarily to Western aid.

Losses of the Black Sea Fleet 

Russia is clearly superior to Ukraine at sea as well. In 2021, Moscow twice trained to land troops in annexed Crimea. This raised fears that Russia would launch an offensive in southern Ukraine towards Odesa and land large formations of troops, including numerous armored fighting vehicles, by warships. Such a thing has not happened so far, while experts do not predict this at the moment. "The amphibious landing is very dangerous," British expert Marc de Vore from the University of St Andrews told DW. "It takes a lot of lead." Apparently, Russia has looked for different possibilities for landing, but has not found the most suitable way, because it has not found any "vulnerable beach".

At the beginning of the invasion, Russia massed warships in Odesa. At that time, Russian troops managed to occupy the small and strategic Snake Island southwest of Odesa. But at the end of June, Ukraine managed to drive the Russian troops out of there, through precise artillery strikes.

The Russian fleet in the Black Sea has so far been one of the biggest losers of the war. The Moskva was hit by Ukrainian missiles in April, damaged and later sunk. Earlier, in March, the Saratov ship was hit by a Ukrainian missile in the port of Berdyansk and then sank. The result: Black Sea Fleet warships are now keeping a greater distance from the coast, which is controlled by Kiev. They are no longer safe even at the Sevastopol base. Ukraine attacked both the base and the ships there with drones. However, the Black Sea Fleet is not out of action. Their ships continue to attack Ukraine with long-range missiles - from a safe distance.

As a result, Russia abandoned the naval blockade of Ukrainian ports. Officially, to make possible the grain agreement brokered by Turkey and the UN. After the attack on Russian warships in late October, Moscow pulled out of the deal — and then back out. According to Moscow, Kiev has given "guarantees" that the Black Sea fleet will not be attacked from a certain "corridor".

Cyber ​​attacks

Finally, before the aggression there were fears that Russia would paralyze Ukraine with massive cyber attacks by hackers. The fear was reasonable, because Ukraine has been the target of repeated digital attacks for years. About a week before the Russian invasion, on February 15, a massive hacker attack took place, which the responsible Ukrainian minister Myhajlo Fedoriv described as "the biggest DDoS attack in the history of Ukraine". DDoS attacks are artificial Internet requests that overwhelm the victim's web servers. Several banks and the Ministry of Defense were attacked. Also a day before the invasion there were hacker attacks on government structures and the parliament, which are thought to have come from Russia.

But Kiev seemed to be well prepared. There have been hacker attacks later too, but unlike previous years, they were less successful. However, parts of critical infrastructure, such as the power grid, have not been disrupted by hacker attacks, but by missile attacks.

Cyber ​​attacks Here
too, the fact that the West has been helping Ukraine to strengthen its cyber defenses for years has proven successful. For example, a few days before the invasion, the EU made the Cyber ​​Rapid Reaction Team (CRRT) available to Ukraine at Kiev's request. For now, it looks like Russia's cyber war is stalling as well as the war on the battlefield. However, Western experts expect more and more hacker attacks in the winter months./DW


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