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What do Americans know? CIA chief in Moscow, why the worst-case scenario could happen much sooner

2026-08-28 19:28:27Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
What do Americans know? CIA chief in Moscow, why the worst-case scenario could
CIA Director John Ratcliffe

In November 2021, then-CIA Director William Burns traveled to Moscow to persuade the Kremlin not to invade Ukraine. In the months that followed, the US faced considerable skepticism – particularly in Europe and especially in Germany – regarding its warnings that war could break out as early as February 2022. In the end, the Americans turned out to be right: Russia launched the attack on the morning of February 24, 2022.

This context makes two things clear: First, the Americans have high-level intelligence on Russia. And second, we must take very seriously the fact that the head of the CIA is once again traveling to Moscow to deter Russia from a possible attack on the Baltic states.

A few weeks ago, US media – citing intelligence sources – reported that a Russian attack could be imminent by the end of the summer. The visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe now shows that this US intelligence information is much more concrete than previously thought.

At first glance, aggressive actions against NATO states seem pointless. Even now, the Russians are having difficulty recruiting enough troops to replace the heavy losses suffered on the front lines in Ukraine. So where would the manpower for an attack on the Baltic region come from?

Some military experts believe that Russia would need only a single regiment – ​​plus a unit of Rubicon drones – to capture a few border towns or a small region with a Russian ethnic majority in a limited offensive. This is especially important given that NATO forces are currently unprepared for the kind of drone warfare that both the Ukrainians and the Russians have already perfected.

There is also the possibility of so-called “false-flag” operations – similar to those observed in Donbas in 2014. In such a scenario, the goal would not be to invade the entire Baltic region, but rather to expose NATO as a “paper tiger” and create discord within the alliance; a limited-scale attack could cause internal disagreements over the appropriate response. This would also offer Russian President Vladimir Putin the opportunity to claim relatively easy propaganda victories.

Putin is likely to see this as a window of opportunity for such an attack. There are several reasons for this. One is the rearmament of Europe; this process means that, within a few years, Europe is likely to be much better prepared for defense than it is today. For the time being, however, Europe remains vulnerable – not least because both Europeans and Russians have reasonable doubts whether a Trump-led US would actually stand by its allies in a crisis with the level of resolve envisaged in NATO’s plans. Moreover, the US itself is less prepared for defense than in the past, as the war in Ukraine – and, above all, the conflict involving Iran – have drastically depleted American stocks of precision munitions and interceptor missiles.

Until now, the prevailing view among Europeans was that Russia would not risk an attack on NATO countries before the end of the decade. However, the continent must now urgently prepare for the possibility that such a crisis could occur much sooner.


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