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Europe is thinking the unthinkable: Counterattacking Russia

2025-11-27 21:40:46Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Europe is thinking the unthinkable: Counterattacking Russia
Europe is thinking the unthinkable: Counterattacking Russia

European countries are considering joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military exercises as Moscow intensifies its campaign to destabilize NATO allies.

Victor Jack and Laura Kayali - Politico.eu

Russia's drones and proxies are regularly attacking NATO countries, and Europe is now doing what would have seemed unthinkable a few years ago: planning how to respond.

The ideas range from joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, faster and more unified coordination to attribute hybrid attacks while immediately pointing the finger at Moscow, to surprise NATO-led exercises, according to two senior European government officials and three EU diplomats.

“The Russians are constantly testing our borders. What is the response? How far can we go?” said Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze. A more proactive response is needed, she told POLITICO. “And it’s not words that give the signal, it’s action.”

Russian drones have flown over Poland and Romania in recent weeks and months, while mysterious drones have caused chaos at airports and military bases across the continent. Other incidents include GPS jamming, incursions by warplanes and ships, and an explosion at a key Polish rail hub carrying military aid to Ukraine.

"Europe and the alliance must ask ourselves how long we are willing to tolerate this type of hybrid warfare, and whether we should consider becoming more active in this area," German Defense Secretary Florian Hahn said last week.

Hybrid attacks are nothing new. Russia has sent assassins to kill political opponents in the United Kingdom, been accused of blowing up weapons depots in Central Europe, attempted to destabilize the EU by funding far-right parties, waged war on social media, and attempted to influence elections in countries like Romania and Moldova.

But the scale and frequency of the current attacks is unprecedented. Globsec, a Prague-based research institute, has estimated that more than 110 acts of sabotage and attempted attacks were carried out in Europe between January and July, mainly in Poland and France, by individuals with ties to Moscow.

“Today’s world offers a much more open, one might even say creative, space for foreign policy,” Russian leader Vladimir Putin declared during the Valdai conference in October, adding: “We are closely following the growing militarization of Europe. Is it just rhetoric, or has the time come to react?”

Russia sees the EU and NATO as rivals or even enemies; former Russian president and current number two on the Kremlin's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, declared last month: "The United States is our adversary." However, Europe does not want war with a nuclear power, so it must find a way to respond without crossing the Kremlin's red lines that could lead to open war.

But that doesn't mean giving in, according to Sweden's defense chief, General Michael Claesson. "We cannot afford to be afraid and anxious about escalation," he said. "We must be determined."

So far, the response has been to strengthen defenses. After Russian drones were shot down over Poland, NATO declared that it would increase air defenses and that against drones on the alliance's eastern flank, a stance also reflected by the EU.

This is also angering Moscow.

Europeans “should be afraid and tremble like fattened animals being led to the slaughterhouse,” Medvedev said. “They should be soiled with fear, sensing their imminent and painful end.”

Gear change

Frequent Russian provocations are changing attitudes in European capitals.

After deploying 10,000 troops to protect Poland's critical infrastructure following the sabotage of the Warsaw-Kiev railway line, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused Moscow of "state terrorism."

EU diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas said after the incident that these threats pose an "extreme risk" for the bloc, arguing that it must "have a strong response."

Last week, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto criticized the continent's "inertia" in the face of hybrid attacks and published a 125-page plan for response. He proposed the creation of a European Center for Countering Hybrid Attacks, a 1,500-strong cyber force and military staff specialized in artificial intelligence.

“Everyone should review their security procedures,” added Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. “Russia is clearly escalating its hybrid warfare against EU citizens.”

From words to deeds

Despite the tough rhetoric, it remains unclear what a more muscular response would actually mean.

The reason is related to the difference between Moscow and Brussels, where the latter is constrained by respect for rules, according to Kevin Limonier, professor and deputy director of the GEODE think tank in Paris.

This raises an ethical and philosophical question, he says, “Can states governed by the rule of law use the same tools, and the same strategies, that Russia uses?”

So far, countries like Germany and Romania are tightening rules that allow authorities to shoot down drones over airports or facilities of military importance.

National security services, meanwhile, can operate in a legal limbo. Allies from Denmark to the Czech Republic allow offensive cyber operations. The United Kingdom reportedly hacked into ISIS networks in 2017 to obtain information about the terrorist group’s early drone program.

Allies should be “more proactive in the cyber offensive,” Braze said, and focus on “increasing situational awareness, bringing together security and intelligence services in a coordinated manner.”

In practice, countries could use cyber methods to strike systems critical to Russia’s war effort, such as the Alabuga economic zone in Tatarstan in central Russia, where Shahed drones are manufactured, as well as energy infrastructure or trains carrying weapons, said Filip Bryjka, an expert on hybrid threats at the Polish Academy of Sciences. “We could hit the system and disrupt its functioning,” he said.

Europe also needs to figure out how to respond to Russia's large-scale disinformation campaigns with its own efforts at home.

“Russian public opinion is somewhat inaccessible,” said a senior military official. “We need to work with allies who have a detailed understanding of the Russian mindset, which means cooperation must extend to the area of ​​information warfare.”

The new measures, however, must "have credible deniability," said an EU diplomat.

Show of force

NATO, for its part, is a defensive organization and is reluctant to engage in offensive operations. “Asymmetric responses are an important part of the discussion,” said a NATO diplomat, but “we will not lower ourselves to the same tactics as Russia.”

Instead, the alliance should focus on displays of force that show unity and resolve, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokeswoman and a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. In practice, that means quick announcements about Moscow’s involvement in hybrid attacks and surprise military exercises near the Russian border with Lithuania or Estonia.

Meanwhile, the Center of Excellence for Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, which works under NATO support, is “providing expertise and training” and drafting “policies to counter these threats,” said Maarten ten Wolde, a senior analyst at the organization.

“There is no doubt that more needs to be done on the issue of hybrid attacks,” said another senior NATO diplomat, including increasing collective attribution after attacks and ensuring that “we show in every way that we are attentive and can move capabilities flexibly.


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