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Demography "hits" Southern Europe, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain, in the worst situation

2024-07-20 12:30:35Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Demography "hits" Southern Europe, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain,

According to the latest analysis and data from UBS, Europe is experiencing a dramatic demographic shift. By 2050 the EU's population is expected to shrink from 447 million to 423 million – a drop of 24 million or 5.4%. Each year, the EU's working-age population will decrease on average by around 1.7 million, or 0.6% of the total working-age population.

The countries of the South are facing the most unfavorable demographic trends in Europe, which are expected to worsen even more in the coming decades, argues UBS. In fact, Greece ranks fourth worst when it comes to demographic indicators, such as population growth, fertility rates, life expectancy and working-age people. More specifically, as UBS notes, Europe is experiencing a dramatic demographic shift. The demographic transition doesn't just mean that Europe will have fewer and fewer people working, as UBS points out, it also means that the average working age is rising.

The total cost of aging, e.g. spending on pensions, health care, long-term care, etc., is estimated at 24.2% of EU GDP in 2023 and is expected to increase to 25.5% by 2050. Overall, the demographic transition will have consequences of important for the European GDP growth trend, productivity and spending trends, as well as public finances, and can affect inflation and interest rates.


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