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Analysis: Le Pen has never been closer to victory

2022-04-11 20:44:24Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Analysis: Le Pen has never been closer to victory

Current French President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen will face each other in the run-off for the presidential election on April 24, after the first round of the race on Sunday where Macron won about 27 percent of the vote, compared to Le Pen with 24 percent. Mr Macron faced Ms Le Pen in the runoff five years ago and won the second round with about two-thirds of the vote. Analysts say this time, the result is far from safe.

French far-right presidential challenger Marine Le Pen has never been closer to victory than in the current race to the Elysee Palace, the leader of a French poll said on Friday, two days before the first round of votes.

Current President Emmanuel Macron, whose re-election seemed nearly certain just weeks ago, is now facing a tough challenge from Le Pen. Her strong comeback puts her victory within the margins of error in some polls.

"Marine Le Pen has never been so capable of winning presidential elections. Today, it comes with a high level of votes and the ability to benefit from the changes constituents will make, whether on the part of Eric Zemmour's camp, or from right-wing candidate Valerie Pecresse, said Jean-Daniel Levy, director for the Harris Interactive polling institute.

And unlike in 2017, many voters will not use the vote against Le Pen, which gave Emmanuel Macron victory in the past runoff, says analyst Levy.

"The vote against Le Pen will not work this time, because we have many voters, especially on the left and the working class who think Emmanuel Macron does not represent a credible alternative, and who can give the vote to Le Pen in the runoff."

Ms. Le Pen has focused her campaign on the economy, successfully softening her image and touching on voters' main concern and promising a tax cut.

The radical and outspoken views of rival far-right candidate Eric Zemmour have helped him look more moderate and many left-wing voters have told pollsters that, unlike 2017, they would not vote in the second round to keep Le Pen out of power.

Emmanuel Macron must now convince left-wing voters to support him.

"Today, left-wing voters consider Macron to be very right-wing. It is a challenge for the president to appease the left about social programs on the one hand, but also for his ability to guarantee a higher purchasing power," says analyst Levy.

In the French seaside resort of Le Touquet, many voters continued to vote for the current president, but some said international affairs, especially the Ukraine crisis, prevented his campaign from moving at the right speed.

Many experts predicted record levels of abstention sunday. However, turnout in Sunday's polls did not result in such concern.

Analyst Levy said a high percentage of abstention, which would most likely be driven by young, left-wing voters from the working class, would hurt Le Pen in the first round, but help him in the second.

He said a Le Pen victory would change France's image on the world stage.

"If Marine Le Pen becomes president, France's image would be profoundly changed. And we clearly see that there are international actors and investors who will be reluctant to invest in France," says analyst Levy.

Polls predict a strong second round, but that bring out Macron's winner with only 51% of the vote versus Ms Le Pen's 49%.


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