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Could the upcoming elections end Netanyahu's four-decade career?

2026-06-27 20:19:21Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Could the upcoming elections end Netanyahu's four-decade career?

The upcoming elections in Israel are expected to determine the political legacy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing growing pressure over his handling of wars in the region and corruption allegations.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is considered the great "survivor" of Israeli politics. But with a general election due in October, he faces the biggest challenge of his career, one that could bring a tense end to a nearly four-decade political career.

In the background lies a series of political developments, as Netanyahu reportedly convinced US President Donald Trump to join him in a war against Iran on February 28, prompting Tehran to launch attacks on Israel, Gulf countries and ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel is also engaged in another war in the north with the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. This has placed Netanyahu between American pressure to halt the offensive and an Israeli public opinion that demands continued fighting against Iran and its allies in the region.

Meanwhile, he also faces public anger over the lack of an independent investigation into his government's failures before and after the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, in southern Israel.

Following the devastating war in Gaza, Israel has faced increased international criticism and a deterioration in its image in some countries, as well as stronger criticism within the American political establishment.

At the same time, Netanyahu still faces several corruption charges dating back to 2019, and if found guilty, he could even end up in prison.

In this context, the Israeli elections are being held at a crucial moment for both Netanyahu and the country itself.

"It looks like Netanyahu could be in serious trouble," political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera. "The US-Iran deal has not been well received and it is not at all clear to the public what is happening in Lebanon."

"It's not known whether it's a ceasefire, a withdrawal or something else, and the media here is very skeptical. Finally, there's the issue of the US. The Israelis have long thought they were acting autonomously, but recent events have shown that this is more of an illusion."

Between pressure and political limits

The Israeli public is keenly aware of the importance of American support for the country's security. Now, the US and Israel appear to have different positions on the war in Lebanon, with Trump seeking de-escalation to maintain stability and restore normalcy to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has included Lebanon in its agreement with the US to end the war, so any new Israeli attack on southern Lebanon threatens the stability of this understanding.

Netanyahu is being criticized by both hardliners and more moderates in Israel: the former urge him to continue the fight against Hezbollah, while the latter warn that opposing the US will damage strategic relations with Washington.

Israel continues to control about a fifth of Lebanon's territory, while a framework agreement signed in Washington leaves its future military presence unclear. According to polls, about three-quarters of Israelis support continued control in Lebanon, while only a small minority oppose it.

Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israeli army and Netanyahu's main political challenger, has criticized the lack of a clear strategy towards the US on Lebanon.

“We failed to capitalize on our military achievements and woke up to a security reality that should not have been allowed,” he said. “Even the fact that Israel needs Washington’s approval to carry out attacks in Lebanon is unthinkable.”

According to former Israeli government advisor Daniel Levy, the opposition is also challenging Netanyahu from the right, claiming to have a "magic" solution to the war in Lebanon.

"Meanwhile, Netanyahu will try to buy time and undermine the US-Iran deal," he said.

US–Israel relations

According to the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US signed on June 18, the parties commit to "the immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon," as well as to guaranteeing "the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon."

However, Israel has publicly refused to withdraw from Lebanese territory and has continued its attacks, with the latest war having left some 4,230 people dead and 12,179 wounded since March 2. At the same time, cities in northern Israel remain within range of Hezbollah's rockets and drones.

“Netanyahu promised the northerners a future he couldn’t deliver,” said analyst Ori Goldberg. “He promised them a morning when they would wake up and see no more threat, but the people are tired and yearning for normality.”

However, according to some analysts, Netanyahu may still have room for maneuver in Lebanon.

According to reports, President Trump is increasingly unhappy with Netanyahu's actions, even calling him "crazy" in a phone call.

On June 7, Trump told the Financial Times that Netanyahu should honor the ceasefire agreement with Iran, saying: "I make the decisions. He doesn't make the decisions."

According to Daniel Levy, tensions between the two leaders have increased, as there have been no new meetings since the start of the war with Iran.

"This worries Netanyahu. He is seeking another meeting and is trying to regain the support of the American president before the election," he said.

“Netanyahu is watching the minute, not the hour; time is running out.”


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