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Should Ukraine negotiate with Russia?

2022-11-26 16:40:16Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA TATIANA VOROZHKO
Should Ukraine negotiate with Russia?
Ukrainian firefighters try to put out a fire from Russian bombing in Vyshgorod near the capital Kiev, Ukraine (November 23, 2022)

Ukrainian officials are resisting mounting pressure to enter into negotiations with Moscow, even as relentless Russian airstrikes increasingly weigh on Ukrainian lives, property and infrastructure.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, dismissed Russian announcements of readiness for talks as simply part of an influence campaign to undermine support for Ukraine among its partners.

"We expect our partners to stop paying attention to Russia's provocative statements regarding the negotiation process," Mr. Podolyak said in an interview Friday with VOA.

So far, US administration officials agree. At a Nov. 11 news conference en route to Cambodia, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Russian proposals cannot be taken seriously as long as Moscow seeks to illegally annex Ukrainian territory.

Laying out what he called "four essential elements of consensus" in the US government, Mr Sullivan reiterated that only Ukraine can decide when and on what terms to negotiate. He added that any just peace must be based on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity and that the US will do everything it can to ensure that in any future talks, Ukraine is able to negotiate from a position strong.

However, Moscow state representatives have increasingly talked about opening negotiations in the wake of Russia's withdrawal from Kherson - the country's third major return to war.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said this month that his government is "open to dialogue, without preconditions," Russian media reported. He was quoted as saying that Moscow had been willing to engage in negotiations earlier, but that Kiev had stopped the dialogue "at the behest of its Western curators".

Four days after Mr Ryabkov's comments, the Russians launched the heaviest bombardment of Ukrainian territory since its invasion in February. On November 15, up to 100 missiles and drones were launched, paralyzing almost half of Ukraine's energy system. Another mass attack on Wednesday further damaged energy infrastructure in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities.

The November 15 bombings came just hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a 10-point "peace formula" at the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. It included measures to ensure nuclear and radiation safety, food and energy security, a prisoner exchange and the return of Ukrainians expelled from Russia, the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and the prosecution of war crimes.

Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's press secretary, told Russian journalists that the bombings - which left millions of Ukrainians without heat, water or electricity, at least for hours at a time - were due to the refusal of Ukrainian authorities to negotiate.

"The unwillingness of the Ukrainian side to solve the problem, to enter into negotiations, and moreover, the actions of the Ukrainian side to abandon the agreed points of the text, and so on, all these bring consequences," Mr. Peskov said, according to a Russian news agency.

Mr. Podolyak told VOA that Peskov's statement was "the kind of ultimatum that terrorists would issue: Either I kill the hostages — the civilian population of Ukraine — or you do what we say."

He believes that Russia developed the negotiation narrative to improve its reputation around the world.

"For them, the word 'negotiation' does not mean the same as for everyone - to sit down, present the positions and seek a compromise," Mr. Podolyak said. "No. They say 'negotiation', which means 'meeting their demands' - for example, not joining European organizations, NATO or any other military alliance and giving away territories."

He argued that Russia, losing on the battlefield, has resorted to attacks on the Ukrainian population to force the leaders in Kiev to comply with its demands.

He said negotiations could begin once Ukraine's territorial integrity is restored and Russia returns to the framework of international law. Such talks, he suggested, could focus on issues such as prosecuting war crimes and securing compensation for damages.

Media reports have suggested that some US government officials would like Kiev to capitalize on its battlefield successes by moving into early negotiations. But Ambassador William Taylor, deputy director for Russia and Europe at the American Institute of Peace, said the position outlined by Mr. Sullivan is the administration's official position.

“Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, spoke for the president and the entire administration,” said Mr. Taylor, who served as charge d'affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Kiev in 2019. “It's in the U.S. national interest that Ukraine wins .this war and for Russia to lose".

The ceasefire: Who benefits?

Most experts who spoke to VOA believe that a ceasefire at this time would benefit the Kremlin and that the war would not end.

Any negotiated ceasefire would allow Russian forces to reorganize and strengthen, said Nataliya Bugayova, a research associate at the Institute for the Study of War.

"Ukraine has the advantage on the ground. A ceasefire would keep the front lines in the best possible shape that Putin can hope for from this war. It is one of the few ways for Russia to break the advantage of Ukrainian forces," she said in a written response to the Voice of America.

David Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute, believes that Ukraine can prevail on the battlefield and that the only way to end the war is for Ukraine's allies to help it win.

"No one wants this war to end more than the Ukrainians. They are fighting and dying to defend their country and their freedom, but they have been extremely successful so far and think they can prevail. The call for negotiations now it hurts their advantage," Ms. Kramer said.

Ambassador Taylor said that a ceasefire reached while the Ukrainian army is trying to push Russian forces out of the country would "allow the Russians to keep what they have already occupied, illegally".

That would put the Russians in an advantageous position for future attacks, Ms. Bugayova said.

"Any strong point for the Russians, especially in the highly strategic south of the country, would pose a permanent threat to Ukrainian sovereignty because Putin's maximalist goal of controlling Ukraine has not changed and will most likely last even when he is no longer in power. The Kremlin will use the ceasefire to adapt, not to reduce efforts to bring Ukraine under control."

A fiscal argument

An opposing view was expressed by Katrina vanden Heuvel in an article in The Washington Post newspaper. She argued that it is time for the United States to begin creating the conditions for a diplomatic solution to the war because of the rising costs for the warring parties, for the United States and other countries that support Ukraine.

"Too much is at stake if we sit idly by as the disaster spreads and the costs and risks continue to rise," she wrote.

President Biden's administration won congressional approval for $40 billion in aid to Ukraine for 2022; more than $19 billion has been spent on military defense since February 24.

Economist Timothy Ash admitted in an article for the Center for European Policy Analysis that aid to Ukraine now represents 5.6% of total US defense spending. But he wrote that:

"Russia is a major adversary of the United States, a primary rival, not far from China, the number one strategic challenger."

The National Defense Strategy of the United States defines Russia as "an acute threat".

No territorial concessions

Mr. Kramer said he worries that talk of Ukraine needing to make concessions will be "deeply demoralizing to the extremely brave Ukrainian forces fighting for their freedom." He noted that most Ukrainians oppose any territorial concessions in exchange for a ceasefire.

According to a poll conducted in September by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 87% of Ukrainians were not ready to support any territorial concessions for the sake of ending the war with Russia as soon as possible.

Ms Bugayova added that an early ceasefire would leave Ukrainians still living in the occupied territories to suffer "ongoing Russian atrocities".

The United States Ambassador for Global Criminal Justice, Beth Van Schaack, pointed out that non-governmental organizations, the media and war crimes investigators have already collected extensive evidence of such atrocities.

"Wherever Russian forces are stationed, we're seeing a whole range of different war crimes," she told VOA's Ukrainian-language service.

"This includes everything from the bombing of civilian infrastructure, to personal violence, with individuals appearing to have been killed execution-style, or whose bodies show signs of torture."

She added that there were "credible reports of women and girls, and even men and boys, who were subjected to sexual violence while held by Russian forces."

Mr Taylor said he believed Kiev should consider talks with Moscow, but only after Russian forces leave Ukrainian territory. The ambassador said that the territory itself should not be subject to negotiations.

“Topics should include the total withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine; the return of prisoners of war and other Ukrainians, including Ukrainian children, held or forcibly taken to Russia; reparations for war damages; responsibility for war crimes and atrocities; and security guarantees for Ukraine," Mr. Taylor said in a written response to VOA.

Mr. Kramer agreed, but said he could find few topics to discuss with the current government in Moscow.

"It is difficult to see what there is to negotiate with a regime in Moscow guilty of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide," he said in a written response.

Will Pomeranz, director of the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute, sees little likelihood of a diplomatic solution anytime soon.

"President Zelenskyy has talked about an ambitious peace plan that is unlikely to be accepted - or even considered - by the Russian Federation. Ukraine's recent military successes make it even less likely that Zelenskyy will compromise on any of the demands his," he told VOA.

He believes that the Russians are also unlikely to accept and compensate for the pain they caused Ukraine.

"Indeed, there can be no peace until Russia confronts its human rights violations in Ukraine and pays significant reparations for the damage it has caused. Such a concession is far from over," Mr. Pomerantz said. in a written response.

At the same time, as President Biden administration officials repeatedly say, the war could end at any moment if Russian President Putin decides to end it.

"Russia attacked Ukraine. If Russia chose to stop fighting in Ukraine and leave, that would be the end of the war. If Ukraine decided to stop fighting and surrender, that would be the end of Ukraine," said Mr. Sullivan.

* Some of the data for this article was obtained from The Washington Post, CEPA, Kommersant.Ru, Ukrinform and Interfax.Ru./VOA


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