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The fall of the Euro does not stop, the exchange rate with the Lek is close to the historical minimum

2022-04-21 14:55:37Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The fall of the Euro does not stop, the exchange rate with the Lek is close to

The euro continued to fall in the lek exchange rate on Thursday, approaching the historic low.

According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the Euro was exchanged today at 120.2 Lekë. This value is very close to the level of 120.18 ALL, which represents the lowest historical value of the Euro-Lek exchange rate and was recorded in December 2007.

The strengthening of the Lek against the Euro on this scale in recent weeks has somewhat surprised the foreign exchange market agents. Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, which further exacerbated last year’s clear inflationary pressures, expectations were mainly in the direction of a weakening of the lek against the Euro, due to the widening external deficit. However, a significant devaluation of the national currency marked itself in early March, triggered by a concentrated demand of OSHE for foreign exchange purchases and further, by a phase of panic that gripped the foreign exchange market. This short moment was overcome after the intervention of the Bank of Albania, which sold Euros in the market to stabilize the exchange rate. From that moment on, the Euro exchange rate has followed a slow downward trend, but in the last two weeks it has accelerated further.

The fall of the Euro does not stop, the exchange rate with the Lek is close to

Acknowledging that in this situation such an appreciation of the Lek is somewhat paradoxical, foreign exchange agents raise several hypotheses on the causes. The Bank of Albania initially influenced this trend, selling Euros in March and canceling auctions for the purchase of foreign currency planned for March and April. This has led to an increase in the supply of the Euro in the market. Also, since the beginning of March OSHE has no longer made purchases of euros to import energy, but is expected to return to the market for purchases soon.

The increase in the key interest rate last month is also in theory an element that goes in favor of the appreciation of the Lek, although experts are somewhat skeptical about the real weight of this factor in the Albanian foreign exchange market.

According to market agents, supply-demand from customers in recent weeks has not been very large fluctuations, so the acceleration of the fall of the Euro during these days can be explained mainly by concentrated operations and large-value sales by key players. market. Usually, such are large system banks, which perform exchange operations to adjust their positions or on behalf of clients who want to trade high values. The depreciation to record levels of the Euro should be linked to operations of selling the euro at large values, but it is difficult to identify the source of supply.

Although the performance of the exchange rate is becoming more and more difficult to predict, agents think that it will be difficult for the euro to continue to fall below the level of 120 lek. According to them, the reduction of the exchange rate to current levels may gradually lead to an increase in demand for the Euro, precisely because of the favorable price. Those actors who have expenses in Euro, related to import, business, property purchase, loan repayment, etc. can be encouraged to buy due to the favorable exchange rate, affecting an increasing correction of the Euro-Lek exchange rate ./ Monitor


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