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The lek strengthens further against the Euro, near the lowest levels in 15 years

2022-04-20 17:23:14Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The lek strengthens further against the Euro, near the lowest levels in 15 years

The lek is continuing to strengthen in the exchange rate with the Euro this week as well.

According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the Euro was exchanged on Wednesday at 120.5 Lekë, down by 0.4 points compared to the previous day.

Already, the exchange rate of the Euro has fallen very close to the lowest levels of the last 15 years, which were recorded in December 2021. On December 28, 2021, the Euro was exchanged at 120.36 Lekë, marking the lowest level since 2007.

For months, the Albanian economy is also facing a strong rise in prices of goods from abroad, which is accompanied by high levels of inflation in imported. The increase in imports has had a significant impact on the growth of the external deficit. Data from the Bank of Albania showed an increase in the current account deficit in the last quarter of 2021 by 56% on an annual basis.

At least for foreign trade of goods, this trend has continued in the first quarter of this year. According to INSTAT, the trade deficit for the period January-March expanded by 6% compared to the same period a year earlier.

Given the external deficit trends, such a strong position of the lek in the euro exchange rate at first glance is difficult to explain. This finding is also shared by foreign exchange agents. They say that, in general, the market is showing little demand to buy euros, which is somewhat unexpected, especially for the importing sectors of the economy, which in recent months have faced the need for more foreign currency, due to growth of prices.

However, experts do not rule out that there may be an abnormal depreciation component in the performance of the euro exchange rate, by large actors, mainly large commercial banks.

Soon, the Distribution System Operator (OSHE) group is expected to make the next purchases in the foreign exchange market for the needs of energy import contracts. Sources say that the purchases can reach a value of up to 40 million Euros.

Because of this expectation, one hypothesis could be that high market power actors are trying to shift the downtrend in order to gain more from spreads as demand increases due to of OSHE purchases. This factor is expected to bring an increasing correction of the Euro exchange rate with the Lek in the coming weeks.

Në fillim të marsit, kërkesa e lartë e OSHE shkaktoi një mbiçmim të fortë të Euros në kursin e këmbimit valutor, mbiçmim që arriti në pothuajse 5% në harkun e një jave. Por, pas ndërhyrjes së Bankës së Shqipërisë nëpërmjet shitjes së valutës, tregu u qetësua shpejt dhe në vazhdim kursi i Euros iu kthye gradualisht rënies, derisa këtë javë ka arritur pothuajse në nivelet e fundit të vitit 2021.

Burime nga sektori bankar, në fakt, konfirmojnë se 2-3 banka të mëdha në ditët e fundit kanë mbajtur pozicione në shitje të valutës, çka e shpjegon tendencën e zhvlerësimit të Euros.

Një faktor tjetër që në teori e mbështet forcimin e lekut është diferenca në normat bazë të interesit. Muajin e kaluar, Banka e Shqipërisë e rriti normën bazë të lekut në 1%, ndërsa për euron norma referuese e interesit e Bankës Qendrore Europiane qëndron ende në zero. Në tregjet e zhvilluara diferenca në normën bazë luan një rol të rëndësishëm në kursin e këmbimit mes monedhave.

Por, në tregun valutor shqiptar ekspertët mendojnë se ky faktor nuk luan një rol shumë të madh. Sipas tyre, deri tani nuk vërehet ndonjë tendencë e dukshme e zhvendosjes së kursimeve drejt Lekut, me qëllim sigurimin e kthimeve më të mëdha nga investimet financiare.

On Wednesday, the Lek gained points in the exchange rate with most other major currencies. However, the exchange rate of the Lek with these currencies is not closely related to developments in the domestic market, but reflects the exchange rate of other currencies against the Euro, which remains the orienting foreign currency in the Albanian economy, because it dominates the country's trade, but also has also a widespread use in economic and financial transactions of the internal market.

Source: Monitor


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