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The Vienna Institute reviews the forecasts for the Albanian economy

2022-04-28 11:33:55Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The Vienna Institute reviews the forecasts for the Albanian economy
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The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies is the next institution that has revised downwards the economic growth forecast for Albania.

According to the Institute, the economy is expected to grow by 3.5% this year, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous estimate.

"Albania has a low volume of trade with Russia and Ukraine, but will experience negative consequences from the war in Ukraine, due to strong trade relations with the EU.

Monetary policy has shifted towards higher interest rates and government fiscal stimulus measures will support consumption. Exports of minerals and fuels have gained momentum; however the country's current account balance will deteriorate.

According to the baseline scenario, inflation this year will be 6% and growth 3.5%. In the medium term, inflation will fall to 3% and growth will increase to 3.9% ", it is said in the part for Albania.

The Vienna Institute has revised downward growth for all of Central and Eastern Europe. In the Balkans, the deepest downward revision was recorded by Serbia (-1.3%) and the lowest by Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Earlier, other international institutions revised the country's growth in light of new developments, in which Ukraine's attacks on Russia have caused major problems in the global supply chain, especially of cereals, oil, fuel and gas.

The most pessimistic so far is the International Monetary Fund. The IMF predicts that the Albanian economy will grow this year by only 2%, from 4.5% that was forecast in October. The lowering of the IMF forecast is related to the war and its impact on the country's key partners (such as Italy) as well as the energy situation.

According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Albania's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2022, decreasing by 0.4 percentage points, compared to the November projection.

The World Bank in its latest report "War in the Region" for Central Europe and Asia now expects the domestic economy to grow by 3.2 percent, or 0.6 percentage points less than the previous report. Even for 2023, the economy is expected to grow by 3.4%, or 0.3 percentage points less than the previous estimate.

The Vienna Institute reviews the forecasts for the Albanian economy

 


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