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European governments and the commission are not finding it easy to become as dependent as they might like to be on Moscow for much-needed gas supplies. Russia is still a particularly attractive option even in the face of liquefied natural gas, resulting in an ongoing supply poker game.
Already after the sharp decline in natural gas exports from Russia that occurred immediately after the start of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has begun to see a significant increase in these exports to the EU again through alternative routes. As Russian state company Gazprom finds other ways to sell its gas to Europe, a new non-dependency plan to replace Russian gas flowing to Europe via Ukraine with gas from Azerbaijan could amount to a disguised export of fuel from Russia.
All this comes as EU countries sharply increase imports of Russian natural gas, despite the bloc's efforts to reduce purchases of the fossil fuel from Russia in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
EU countries imported around 30% more natural gas from Russia in May 2024 than in September 2022. EU gas imports still remain low compared to pre-war levels, with the EU importing around 15 billion cubic meters from Russia in May 2021, compared to 4.8 billion cubic meters in May 2024. Compared to 3.7 billion in September 2022, however, it is still a significant and sustainable increase, the same figures show.
Today, large quantities of Russian natural gas are routed to Europe through pipelines that pass through Ukraine, among other places, with the government in Kiev considering whether to replace those quantities from Russia with supplies from Azerbaijan. However, Azerbaijan will be able to supply only a small part of this amount needed in Europe, which is currently covered by Russia.
In addition, the new fuel is likely to be transported through Russia and Ukraine before reaching Europe. If no other solution is found, then there could be a shortage of natural gas supplies for Europe and especially for countries in the easternmost part of the bloc, such as Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, EU diplomats say according to the same sources.