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Optimistic experts: Oil could fall to $40 per barrel

2024-11-13 16:28:27Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Optimistic experts: Oil could fall to $40 per barrel
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Oil prices could fall sharply if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) eases production cuts, said market analysts who forecast a decline in crude this year.

"There is more fear about prices in 2025 than there has been in many years, more than any year I can remember since the Arab Spring," said Tom Kloaza, head of energy analysis at OPIS.

"They could go down to $30 or $40 per barrel if OPEC+ limits cuts and there isn't some kind of agreement to curb production," Kloza added.

A drop to $40 per barrel would mean about a 40% drop in current crude oil prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 a barrel.

With oil demand growth next year likely to be no more than 1 million barrels per day, a full easing of OPEC+ supply cuts would cause crude prices to fall very sharply, maybe towards $40 a barrel," said Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group.

Similarly, MST Marquee senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic argued that if OPEC+ were to implement cuts regardless of demand, "it would essentially be a price war for market share that could drive oil to levels of low".

Earlier this month, OPEC+ decided again to postpone the planned increase in oil production by another month until the end of December.


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