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"Albania's stable economy", IMF: Emigration and population aging, danger! The strengthening of the lek had a positive effect

2024-01-12 20:59:22Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
"Albania's stable economy", IMF: Emigration and population aging,
Headquarters of the International Monetary Fund

Albania's economy has performed positively throughout 2023, but will slow down this year by 0.3%. This is the assessment made recently by the International Monetary Fund, which predicts that Albania's economy will grow by 3.3% this year from 3.6%, which is the expectation for last year.

"Albania's economic prospects are expected to remain stable. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.6 percent in 2023 and 3.3 percent in 2024 led by resilient private consumption, with notable strength in tourism and construction activity," the IMF says.

Even in this assessment it is stated that: "The high rate of emigration of workers and the aging of the population constitute additional threats to economic growth".

Unlike local institutions which claim that inflation will return to the target within this year, the IMF says that the reduction of inflation to 3% can be achieved in 2025, only if the Bank of Albania continues to increase the base interest rate. and bring it to 4.5%, from the current 3.25%.

"Returning inflation to target is likely to require some further increases in the base rate. A gradual increase in the policy rate towards a broadly neutral stance - estimated at around 4.5 percent - will help return inflation to target by early 2025," the IMF points out.
Uncertainties about reducing inflation are high due to international tensions and Albania's dependence on the weather for energy production, says the International Monetary Fund, but estimates that the strengthening of the lek has had a positive impact on keeping prices under control.

The country is also suggested to reduce its dependence on variable rate debt, as well as to keep the energy sector and PPPs under control as it considers them as the key to maintaining fiscal sustainability.


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