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"Energy, construction, tourism and grain will be hit, consumption and investment will be reduced", BoA: The effects of the war on the economy will last

2022-04-29 12:06:47Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

"Energy, construction, tourism and grain will be hit, consumption and

Negative impacts on the economy will last over 1 year!

 Bank of Albania presents the financial stability report for the second half of 2022: Military aggression in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have further aggravated global problems with production and supply, affecting the rise in prices of oil, gas, cereals and metals.

The BoA projections report short-term increases in inflation, which will lead to higher production costs, lower consumption, lower investment, and slower economic growth.

Albania's banking sector is not expected to be affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but banks need to assess new risks and take action. 

The BoA has conducted a survey with banks on the war, it is expected that the duration of the negative impact on the economy will be over 1 year. Expect strong inflation, deepening budget deficit and deteriorating budget balance.

The sectors that are expected to be most affected are Energy, cereals, construction and tourism.

Banks do not expect significant impact of their war activity, but express great concern about the possibility of cyber attacks and the quality of credit.

A specific analysis of Albania's exposure to Russia shows that imports with Russia and Ukraine account for only 1.5% and 2% of total trade in goods.

Albania imports 40% of cereals from Russia, while imports from Ukraine are insignificant. In the long run, measures must be taken to reduce dependence on other countries for food and electricity. Demand and supply for real estate for years has increased.

The increase in house prices is 8.4% last year, while in Tirana prices increased by 12.5%. The BoA is working to improve the data on this market, taking into account the potential risks that accompany this market.


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