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The indicator of confidence in the economy falls again; in improvement only construction

2023-12-01 12:33:46Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The indicator of confidence in the economy falls again; in improvement only

The economic sentiment indicator (TNE) fell by 1.6 points in November, marking the third consecutive month without growth. According to the survey of the Bank of Albania, however, the current level of TNE is about 9 percentage points above the historical average.

The decline this month was mainly influenced by the lower value of the confidence indicator in the services and trade sector. The drop in confidence in the industry sectors and the drop in consumer confidence also contributed negatively. In contrast, the construction confidence indicator made a positive contribution this month.

The industry confidence indicator fell by 0.6 percentage points in November, marking a slower decline than in the previous month. However, it continues to remain above the historical average. Industry businesses were more pessimistic about ordering contracts, mainly those related to export. On the other hand, they reported improved actual industrial production. Expectations of industrial businesses for future production have remained unchanged from the level of a month ago, while expectations for future employment are declining. Expectations for the prices of the products they will produce in the future are estimated to increase this month.

The indicator of confidence in services fell by 4.4 percentage points in November, but continued to stand above the historical average, by 12.3 percentage points. The less optimistic assessments of businesses both for the current progress of their activity and for the current level of demand contributed to the decline in confidence. Expectations for the demand and level of employment in the future are estimated to increase by these businesses. Their expectations for future price movements are rising.

The trade confidence indicator recorded a decrease of 1.7 percentage points in November. Currently, the level of the indicator is about 8 points above the historical average. The monthly decline of the indicator was mainly influenced by less positive assessments of the current performance of their business. On the other hand, expectations for employment in the future have remained almost at the same level as a month ago. Expectations for future prices were rated slightly higher.

The confidence indicator in construction registered an increase of 4.4 percentage points in November, standing about 20 percentage points above the historical average. The increase was mainly determined by more optimistic estimates of current construction activity. The estimate for the level of orders registered an increase, but to a lesser extent. Also, the expectations for employment and the prices they will set in the future have recorded growth.

The consumer confidence indicator recorded a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points in November. Currently, the level of this indicator is 2 percentage points above its historical average. Consumers downgraded purchases in large amounts. On the other hand, they were more optimistic about the financial and economic situation of the country in the future.


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