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Transnistria and Moldova: Russia's Next War?

2024-03-05 22:38:44Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA VITALIE CALUGAREANU DHE KENO VERSECK
Transnistria and Moldova: Russia's Next War?
Transnistria and Moldova: Russia's Next War?

Separatists in Moldova's Transnistria region seek help from Moscow. But in his address to the nation, Vladimir Putin did not mention it. Will Russia, however, open a new war front?

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Russia has almost continuously waged wars against its neighbors, or at least provoked them. Moscow launched its first war about two months after the fall of the Soviet Empire: in early March 1992 in the tiny Republic of Moldova, which lies between Ukraine and northeastern Romania. Most of the inhabitants are Romanian-speaking Moldavians: Most of the country was part of the Romanian Principality of Moldavia until its annexation under the Tsars and again later under Stalin.

In a part of Moldova, called Transnistria, a strip of land on the left bank of the Dniester River, separatists loyal to Moscow, under the pretext of protecting Russians and the Russian language, declared an unrecognized republic in 1990. The very bloody fighting of the spring of 1992 ended after a few months, but since then Russian troops have been in Transnistria – even though the Kremlin had pledged to withdraw them in an agreement a quarter of a century ago.

Transnistria and Moldova: Russia's Next War?
From the outside, Transnistria resembles a giant Soviet museum park – with Lenin monuments, red flags and hammer and sickle symbols

From the outside, Transnistria resembles a giant Soviet museum park – with Lenin monuments, red flags and hammer and sickle symbols. But in reality this strip of land is a giant field for firms and weapons depots of a small group of former KGB officers who currently also work for the Russian military intelligence service GRU. With the Sheriff conglomerate of firms they run money laundering and smuggling operations and control almost all economic activity in the area.

The "President" of Transnistria speaks of "genocide"

Whenever businesses are threatened, the impoverished Parliament, the Supreme Soviet of Transnistria, or other forums convene and ask Moscow for help, protection, or admission to the Russian Federation. Thus the danger of a hot war constantly looms in the otherwise frozen conflict.

It is the same this time: on February 28, 2024 from Tiraspol, the regional capital of Transnistria, a "congress of deputies at all levels" asked Russia in a resolution for protection from "increasing pressure" and "Moldova's economic struggle" ". The "president" of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselski, a former security officer in Sherif, accused the authorities in Chisinau of committing a "genocide" against the people of Transnistria.

More control over Transnistria

The appeal for protection to Russia and the meeting in Tiraspol took place a day before Russian President Vladimir Putin's address to the nation. There was a lot of speculation, whether Putin would use the appeal as a pretext to announce some form of military intervention in Moldova or the annexation of the republic. But Putin did not mention the Republic of Moldova at all in his speech on February 29, 2024.

Moldovan politicians and media talked about a "trick" and a "propaganda bluff" from Transnistria, which should not be taken seriously. The reason: companies from Transnistria must pay taxes and customs fees from January 1, 2024, when they import goods into the regular state territory of the republic. This is part of a catalog of measures by which the country's leadership in Chisinau is trying to regain more control over Transnistria.

Ukraine's border with Transnistria is closed

For the past three decades Transnistria, an area between Ukraine and the regular Moldovan state territory on the right bank of the Dniester River, has been an uncontrolled hub of illegal trafficking, smuggling and money laundering. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu, who previously made a name for herself as a civil rights and anti-corruption campaigner, has been trying to end illegal economic practices with Transnistria since taking office in late 2020.

Paradoxically, Russia's war against Ukraine has helped it in this endeavour, as Ukrainian authorities closed the border with Transnistria at the beginning of the war to prevent acts of sabotage or attacks by Russian soldiers in the port city of Odesa, just 70 kilometers away, and in the surrounding region. . As a result, Transnistria has lost its role as a center for smuggling and money laundering.

"Signs of collapse"

Oleg Serebrian, deputy prime minister of Moldova and minister for the reintegration of Transnistria, said after Putin's speech with optimism that Russia controls less and less the separatist region and that in Tiraspol there are "many centers of power and therefore signs of weakness and collapse." He described the appeal to Russia to protect Transnistria as an "operation to cover up the problems of the separatist regime".

Transnistria and Moldova: Russia's Next War?
The economic situation in Transnistria is not good

"Economically and socially, things are going badly in Transnistria," says Serebrian, "and the people there need an explanation. The explanation is that the mother of all evils is Chisinau and the new customs tariffs and that is why things in the region are not going well. But in reality, things have been going badly for a long time in Transnistria".

Propaganda and disinformation

In fact, due to the lack of a direct connection with Moldova, Russia currently has no opportunity to attack it. However, Moscow has about 1,500 to 2,000 soldiers there. The armed forces of Transnistria are also added to these. Taken together they have an advantage over the small and very weak Moldavian army of only about 5000 soldiers. In addition, in the north of Transnistria, near the village of Cobasna, there is one of the largest weapons depots in Europe with over 20,000 tons of weapons and ammunition from the old Soviet stockpiles. If Russia manages to penetrate the Odesa region, this could be the beginning of an invasion of Moldova.

Politically, Moldova is as lost to Russia as Ukraine. In December, the EU decided to open accession negotiations with the Republic of Moldova. Most people in the country are pro-European, many have the citizenship of neighboring Romania and thus EU passports, hundreds of thousands of Moldovans work in the countries.

That Russia does not give up its claim to the Republic of Moldova, and would probably attack it under favorable circumstances, is shown by Moscow's hybrid war against it: Pro-Russian parties, financed among others by the pro-Russian oligarch exiled to Israel, Ilan Sor, conduct furious campaigns against President Maia Sandu and the pro-Western government of Prime Minister Dorin Recean. Even in social media, pro-Russian propaganda and disinformation are massively present. Presidential elections and a referendum on EU membership are planned for the fall of 2024. "On the eve of these elections, we already see attempts to destabilize the situation in our country", recently warned the Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi. /DW

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