Ankara-Athens tensions and the risk of a conflict as the Greek and Turkish elections approach

2022-10-26 22:41:47Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA DORIAN JONES
Ankara-Athens tensions and the risk of a conflict as the Greek and Turkish
Turkish army in training

Tensions between Turkey and Greece are escalating over a number of territorial disputes. Analysts say the two countries have a long history of managing such tensions. But this will be put to the test as the Greek and Turkish elections approach, where both leaders are expected to exploit nationalist sentiments in the campaign.

The Turkish military is conducting its annual military exercises not far from the neighboring Greek islands.

Greece continues to modernize its military, closing the gap with its Turkish rival, as bilateral tensions rise over a number of territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean.

"Current Greek-Turkish relations at the official level are extremely tense, due to the changing balance in the Eastern Mediterranean and Turkey's domestic politics, which sees a certain degree of interest in demonstrating a unilateral nationalist foreign policy." , says analyst Senem Aydin-Duzgut from Sabanci University.

Addressing supporters at a recent rally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkish forces could one night enter the Greek islands, which Ankara has said must be demilitarized.

Meanwhile, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias compared Turkey to Russia during a recent visit to Ukraine.

The increasingly tense comments from both sides follow incursions by warplanes from both countries, which are becoming a regular occurrence.

"If Turkish planes, ships, or tanks on the border are attacked, Turkey will have to retaliate. But this retaliation can escalate, and it can trigger the start of a war that you cannot end," says Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin.

But tensions and threats between two NATO members are not new developments.

The two sides are in contact and recently the Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar invited his Greek counterpart Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos for a visit to Turkey.

Observers say both countries are capable of managing tensions.

"There have been accidents, wrong steps, which, fortunately, have not resulted in a wider confrontation. Both parties have the mechanisms and knowledge to deal with accidents. If there is no political will from one or the other side to escalate the issue to the level of war, I don't see any possibility for an accident", says analyst Serhat Guvenc from Kadir Has University.

But the elections are expected to complicate the situation further, because the two leaders are facing difficult challenges related to next year's elections.

"It is very significant that both Turkey and Greece will have elections next year. They are getting closer and the two leaders are almost preparing the public for a possible nationalist cause, or a confrontation, even a showdown," says analyst Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution.

Turkey and Greece have decades of experience in managing bilateral tensions. But this will be put to the test, as both countries go to the elections./VOA


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