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US intelligence services: Putin could test NATO unity by attacking a member country

2026-08-07 23:46:09Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
US intelligence services: Putin could test NATO unity by attacking a member
Vladimir Putin

US intelligence services have assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt to test NATO's resolve and unity by launching a limited attack on an Alliance member country in the coming years.

According to sources familiar with US intelligence assessments, possible escalation scenarios range from a cyberattack to a limited military incursion designed to test NATO's commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This article stipulates that an attack on one member is considered an attack on the entire Alliance.

One of the sources told CNN that the most likely areas for a Russian escalation would be the Baltic states or Poland. However, the timing and manner in which Moscow might act remain unclear. According to US and NATO assessments, the risk could increase if Putin fails to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine that would allow him to secure a political exit from the conflict.

NATO has stated that it does not comment on classified intelligence assessments, but emphasizes that it is preparing various scenarios and is ready to defend the territory of member countries.

Concerns have been heightened by several recent incidents. In September, NATO jets shot down Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine. And this week, a drone rigged with explosives was discovered at Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany. A U.S. official said U.S. intelligence linked it to a Russian service.

At the same time, the US faces concerns about its stockpiles of munitions and air defense interceptors, significantly reduced by recent conflicts. American and European diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war have stalled.


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