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Putin is planning another attack on Ukraine in March and preparing for years of war

2023-01-28 23:29:53Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Putin is planning another attack on Ukraine in March and preparing for years of
Vladimir Putin holds a virtual meeting with members of the Russian Security Council on January 20, 2023

Almost a year after an invasion that was supposed to last weeks, Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, while also bracing his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects last for years.

The Kremlin aims to demonstrate that its forces can regain the initiative after months of losing ground, putting pressure on Kiev and its supporters to agree to some sort of ceasefire that leaves Russia in control of the territory it now occupies, according to officials. , advisers and others familiar with the situation.

Even Putin cannot deny the weaknesses of the military he has spent decades building after his troops lost more than half of their initial gains in Ukraine, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The ongoing setbacks have made many in the Kremlin more realistic about their immediate ambitions, acknowledging that even holding the current front line would be an achievement.

But Putin remains convinced that Russia's larger forces and willingness to accept casualties — which already number in the tens of thousands, more than in any conflict since World War II, according to US and European estimates — will allow it to prevail despite its failures so far.

The renewed offensive could begin in February or March, people close to the Kremlin said. Their comments confirm warnings from Ukraine and its allies that a new Russian offensive is coming and suggest it could begin before Kiev receives newly promised supplies of US and European battle tanks.

Putin's determination heralds another deadly escalation in his war as Kiev prepares to withdraw its forces, rejecting any ceasefire that lets Russia occupy its soil. The Russian leader believes he has no choice but to prevail in a conflict he sees as existential with the US and its allies, the people said. A new round of mobilization is possible as early as this spring, they said, as the economy and society increasingly succumb to the needs of the war.

"Putin is disappointed with how things are going, but he is not ready to abandon his goals," said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consultancy. "It just means the road will be longer, bloodier and worse for everyone."

US and European intelligence officials question whether Russia has the resources for a major new offensive, even after mobilizing 300,000 additional troops last fall. Meanwhile, Ukraine's allies are ramping up arms supplies, preparing to deliver armored vehicles and main battle tanks for the first time that could help Ukrainian troops penetrate Russian lines.

But Russia's brutal attacks on places like Bakhmut, an eastern city of limited strategic value, have exhausted Ukrainian forces, diverting troops and weakening Kiev's ability to conduct offensive operations elsewhere, according to US officials.

After blitzkriegs by Ukrainian forces in the summer and fall breached its defense lines, Russia has since ramped up defenses, using trenches, tank traps and mines to slow any potential advance. Publicly, the Kremlin says there are currently no plans for more mobilization.

Longer term, Putin has approved plans to expand the ranks of the military by nearly 50% over the next few years, deploying new forces near Finland – which is in the process of joining NATO – and in the occupied regions of Ukraine. Schools and universities are reinstating military training courses last widely held in the Soviet era as preparations for war permeate society.

However, some element of realism about the military's disastrous performance to date is beginning to slip through the tightly controlled state media.

"So far the results have been terrible because Russia was not ready at all," said Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin.

"It has turned into a protracted war, and Russia does not yet have the manpower or equipment to wage it," he said. "We must stop Ukraine's counterattack and thwart the West's efforts to defeat us by gaining the military advantage."

Russian forces have not demonstrated the ability to do so since the first weeks of the invasion, recapturing only one small town in the past six months and at a heavy cost in casualties. In contrast, Ukrainian troops have repeatedly surprised allies and observers with their successes in repulsing the invaders.

Putin's confidence in his military's ability to pull off a triumph — even at a cost of heavy casualties and destruction — reflects a misunderstanding of the West's commitment to rolling back its aggression, some insiders concede. The US and its allies have steadily increased arms supplies to categories once considered off limits.

However, U.S. and European military officials fear the conflict could soon resolve into a World War I-style artillery war with largely stagnant front lines, a scenario that could favor Russia, with its larger population. and the military industry.

Diplomatically, Russia has sought to win back supporters among non-Western countries by calling for talks on a ceasefire. Even people close to the Kremlin admit they are hopeless at the moment, given Ukraine's demand that Russia withdraw its troops as a condition of any deal.

Source: Bloomberg


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