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Why wars won't be the same after Ukraine: The technology that's changing military battles

2025-01-08 21:25:12Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Why wars won't be the same after Ukraine: The technology that's
Drone

Future historians could potentially refer to the Russo-Ukrainian war as the “Drone War” because of the central role that drone technology is playing throughout the conflict. Indeed, the first months of the war were shaped by Russian Orlan-10 and Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drones.

In the current phase of the war, Ukraine is using new drones, as well as receiving large quantities of drones in foreign aid packages. Meanwhile, Russia has also upgraded its reconnaissance drones and deployed large quantities of flying munitions developed through joint development efforts with other countries. As the war progresses to 2025, drone technology will continue to evolve, with both sides increasingly incorporating swarm technology into their drone fleets.

“Swarm technology” allows multiple drones to operate as a coordinated unit rather than as isolated entities. They have the potential to offer significant advantages, especially in coordinating attacks by sharing information in real time. For a swarm, one drone could monitor other drones carrying out the attack, giving other operators information to make the attack more effective. More advanced swarms would automate much of this process, so that when a drone in the swarm detects a counter-drone, it could relay details of the threat to the rest of the swarm. The swarm could then independently take evasive action to increase its likelihood of completing its mission, writes American Forbes. However, the algorithms underlying this automation require decentralized but synchronized decision-making in a dynamic environment, often in the presence of hostile interference. Recognizing these challenges, many countries are investing heavily in swarm technology and incorporating it into development efforts and testing exercises.

Ukraine currently has an advantage in swarm technology with its ability to leverage advances from the commercial sector, including artificial intelligence that supports the group’s decision-making capability. It is commonly reported on social media that over the past year, Ukraine has deployed groups of three to 10 drones, although the level of cooperation between the drones is unknown. Following current trends, the size of the swarms and their level of autonomy are expected to increase by 2025. Meanwhile, Russia has yet to integrate swarm technology into its drone fleet. However, Alexei Rogozin, a prominent figure in the Russian drone industry, recently stated that Russia will begin deploying drone systems this year out of necessity to keep up with Ukraine.

Opposition of the herds

The integration of swarm technology is a natural response to advances in anti-drone systems. Both Russia and Ukraine employ a layered defense against drones that includes kinetic and non-kinetic measures. Non-kinetic systems use electronic warfare to exploit weaknesses in drone navigation and command signals. However, these systems are typically effective for a few weeks, at which point the target drones are updated to fix the exploited vulnerability. These systems are combined with kinetic anti-drone systems, which use missiles to neutralize drones. These systems are integrated into their short-range air defense networks, with smaller systems deployed in small units on the front lines.

Conventional Russian and Ukrainian anti-drone defenses will face challenges with swarms. While non-kinetic systems have the potential to neutralize large groups of drones, as Russia did early in the war, swarm technology complicates this approach by requiring the simultaneous jamming of multiple signals. Swarms typically operate in a network, allowing one drone to receive critical information from other drones even if one communication path is disrupted. The short distances between drones further amplify their network signals, making them more difficult to jam. Kinetic systems also have problems because they can only target a limited number of drones at once. This forces the system to prioritize which drones to engage, while the rest of the swarm adjusts its flight patterns to avoid being targeted.

Given these challenges, both sides will need to adopt alternative strategies to counter swarm threats. Once deployed, a swarm of drones will be difficult to stop, so there will be increased efforts to disrupt drones before they take off. Such attacks are already occurring, and Russia claims that its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are intended to hinder Ukraine’s drone development efforts. Meanwhile, Ukraine recently raided a warehouse housing 400 Shahed aircraft. Both sides will intensify attacks on sites associated with the storage and production of unmanned aerial vehicles, including strikes on facilities associated with the production of components used in unmanned aerial vehicles.

Wars have historically driven technological advancement, as both sides strive for an advantage on the battlefield. World War I advanced automobile technology, while World War II ushered in modern aviation. Similarly, the Russo-Ukrainian war has accelerated the development of drones over the past 34 months. Today’s drones are far more advanced than those at the start of the war, and as the conflict continues, swarm technology appears to be the next logical step. As 2025 approaches, the Russian-Ukrainian front will see a growing number of drones. In response, both sides will need to develop innovative strategies to counter the growing drone threat.


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