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Why are Sunday's parliamentary elections in Moldova so important for Europe and Russia?

2025-09-27 18:02:56Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Why are Sunday's parliamentary elections in Moldova so important for Europe
Moldova will vote on Sunday

The background, key actors and possible outcome of a race of vital importance, both for Europe and Russia

Moldova will vote this Sunday in parliamentary elections, which its president has described as the most important in the history of this small country.

The results will confirm whether Moldova, a former Soviet republic that gained independence in 1991, will continue on its path toward Western integration, or fall back under Russian influence.

Why do elections matter?

The future of Moldova, a country of 2.4 million people nestled between Ukraine and Romania, is being closely watched across the continent.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week that Moldova needs support to prevent it from falling under Russian influence — a fate that Georgia and Belarus have already suffered. “Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova as well,” he told the UN General Assembly in New York.

Moldova has assumed a prominent role on the diplomatic scene, due to its proximity to Ukraine and NATO alliance (via the border with Romania), but also due to its political direction. In 2021, Moldova elected the pro-European and pro-Western party “Action and Solidarity” (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu, with a majority. After the complete invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Moldova applied for EU membership, received candidate status in record time, and now hopes to join by 2030.

Sandu was re-elected president in last year's elections, but a referendum on EU membership was won by a very narrow majority, raising questions about the long-term direction of the country.

Both processes were accompanied by allegations of Russian interference, including a massive vote-buying scheme, allegedly organized by a pro-Russian proxy. It is said that $15 million was transferred to buy the votes of some 130,000 Moldovans – roughly 10% of the active electorate.

Now polls show that Sandu's party, PAS, faces a serious challenge from the pro-Russian opposition, which could deny it a parliamentary majority. Without a strong majority, the government could struggle to complete the difficult economic and political reforms for EU membership, while also grappling with widespread poverty, high inflation and a relatively large number of Ukrainian refugees.

Sandu has argued that a Moscow-friendly government would be used as a “base for hybrid attacks against the EU,” an argument that appears to find support among European leaders. During a highly symbolic visit to Chisinau last month, along with the leaders of France and Germany, Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said that Moldova must be a country under European influence. “There can be no secure EU, no secure Poland, France and Germany, without a secure Moldova.”

Who are the main politicians and parties?

Maia Sandu, a Harvard-educated and former World Bank official, founded the center-right and reformist PAS party in 2016. One of her closest allies is Dorin Recean, a pro-Western economist and former interior minister, who became prime minister in February 2023.

PAS faces a strong challenge from the Patriotic Bloc, an alliance of pro-Russian leftist parties that includes former President Igor Dodon, whom Sandu defeated in 2020. The Patriotic Bloc argues that European integration threatens Moldova's independence and seeks closer ties with Russia.

Since the results are very close, the role of small parties could be decisive.

The Alternative bloc, led by Chisinau mayor Ion Ceban and the second presidential candidate in 2024, Alexandru Stoianoglo, aims to appeal to disillusioned centrist voters. Although nominally pro-European, the party criticizes the government for failing to improve infrastructure and living standards. Some analysts say Alternative is a party that weakens PAS while maintaining a channel of influence with Russia.

Also in play is the Our Party party, an anti-establishment populist movement led by former mayor Renato Usatii, who has previously had ties to Russian nationalist politicians.

Not on the ballot are candidates linked to pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor, a fugitive and convicted in 2023 of fraud and money laundering in a case where $1 billion disappeared from Moldovan banks in 2014. He is also suspected of being the mastermind behind last year's massive vote-buying scheme.

How does the system work?

After a month-long campaign, voters on Sunday will elect 101 members of parliament, according to a proportional system.

The results will be determined by the votes of the diaspora, with an estimated one million Moldovans living abroad. Moldovans living in Western Europe have been crucial to the ruling party's success and the narrow pro-EU result in the last referendum.

An unpredictable factor is also the presence of 277,000 registered voters in the separatist region of Transnistria, which is controlled by pro-Russian separatists, although officially part of Moldova.

Usually, turnout has been very low, but analysts say Russia has increased disinformation in that region.

What result is expected?

With polls showing the ruling PAS party with a very small lead over the Patriotic bloc, there are several possible outcomes.

PAS could secure a narrow victory, ensuring the continuation of its reform agenda for EU membership. But a more likely outcome is that PAS comes out on top but falls short of a majority, which would lead to long and difficult talks on forming a government.

Some analysts have suggested that flashpoints, such as foreign policy orientation, may be so intractable that only new elections could unblock the situation.

A third possibility is the victory of the pro-Russian bloc, with the support of centrist parties, which could weaken Moldova's path towards the EU and the agenda of democratic reforms.

But any results remain uncertain, as the elections are being held in a climate of heightened fear of foreign interference. Earlier this week, Moldovan authorities detained 74 people in 250 raids in connection with an alleged Russian-backed plot to foment unrest. Prime Minister Recean accused Russia of spending hundreds of millions of euros to seize power. The Kremlin has denied all allegations of election interference.

A risk assessment published by the Digital Forensic Research Lab concluded that Moldova faces “persistent Russian-led hybrid threats, including information warfare, illicit financing, cyberattacks and the mobilization of intermediary actors, aimed at undermining the Moldovan government’s pro-EU agenda and strengthening pro-Russian actors.” Such manipulation, combined with high political fragmentation, risks increasing voter apathy, putting the integrity of elections at risk, the researchers said. /The Guardian


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