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Trump's military operation in Venezuela is creating chaos – and that's a serious risk for China

2026-01-07 20:02:59Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Trump's military operation in Venezuela is creating chaos – and
Xi and Maduro in Beijing

US President Donald Trump's military intervention in Venezuela has overturned in a matter of hours a relationship that China had built over decades with Caracas, putting Beijing in a situation of strategic and diplomatic uncertainty.

Just hours before his arrest in a nighttime operation, Nicolás Maduro had called Chinese President Xi Jinping his “big brother” and “a leader with a powerful message for the world,” in a meeting with senior Chinese diplomats. The propaganda footage from Chinese state media was quickly replaced by images of Maduro handcuffed on a US warship.

Beijing reacted harshly, condemning the US action as a violation of sovereignty and international law, but beyond public statements, China is carefully calculating the real consequences: how to preserve its interests in Latin America without escalating a direct clash with an increasingly unpredictable Trump.

China has invested over $100 billion in Venezuela since 2000, mostly in exchange for oil.

About 80% of Venezuelan oil ends up in China, although this only accounts for about 4% of total Chinese imports. However, the assets of Chinese companies such as CNPC and Sinopec now risk being marginalized or affected by political chaos and US pressure.

The American operation has deepened Beijing's suspicions about the true intentions of the United States. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement that "the Western Hemisphere will not be allowed to serve as a base for US rivals" was read in Beijing as a direct message: China must withdraw from Washington's "backyard."

Although some Chinese nationalists have speculated that the Venezuelan precedent could be applied to Taiwan, analysts say Beijing does not see this as a straightforward model. China continues to pursue a strategy of gradual pressure on Taiwan, not immediate military intervention.

The biggest challenge for China is that the chaos in Venezuela jeopardizes its long-term strategy to win the hearts of the “Global South” – countries that see Beijing as a stable partner, in contrast to an increasingly impulsive US. The fear is that Latin American states may hesitate to deepen cooperation with China, for fear of attracting unwanted attention from Washington.

Ultimately, Trump's intervention is seen as a huge geopolitical gamble. For China, which traditionally avoids risk and prefers the long-term game, this is an undesirable situation, fraught with uncertainty and potentially far-reaching consequences for global balances./ BBC


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