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Who can lead Russia after Putin?

2024-07-26 12:38:13Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Who can lead Russia after Putin?
President Vladimir Putin

Most of the 40 experts interviewed by Systema, a research unit at RFE/RL's Russian Service, said the most likely scenario for a change in power in Russia would be Putin's death.

Almost all of the respodents cited this as one of the most realistic possibilities for Russia, while eight of them saw it as the only option. None of the respodents mentioned the end of Putin's regime through the election. Journalist Andrei Zakharov said that "Russia will be free day."

Vladimir Putin, 71, has been Russia's president or prime minister since 1999, suppressing opposing voices while creating an authoritarian system that has resisted political challenges, economic crises, wars and the coronavirus pandemic.

In January, as Putin was preparing for a fifth presidential term in almost entirely managed elections, a correspondent for the BBC asked a pensioner in the Russian town of Rzhev if anyone could replace Putin.

"Not now," the woman said, repeating a narrative that has been carefully cultivated by Kremlin power.

"Maybe Putin will find someone later. I think he will be in power for a long time."

Despite difficulties thinking "beyond Putin," Systema — a research unit at RFE/RL's Russian service — has asked more than 150 experts, including political scientists, sociologists and journalists in Russia, the United States and Europe.

More than 40 of them agreed to answer and were asked what is the most likely scenario for Putin to be no longer in power and who will be able to replace him.

Many have said that these speculations are only based on fantasy, and that identifying the successor's name is mission impossible.

Some have said that Even Putin has no clear idea in this regard.

"The weakening of putin's regime will be in line with Putin's natural aging," Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said.

Until death do us part

Most experts have said the most likely scenario for a change of power in Russia would be Putin's death.

In fact, almost all of the respodents cited this as one of the most realistic possibilities for Russia, while eight of them saw it as the only option.

Meanwhile, 23 have said the coup or an elite uprising could spark a power shift.
Dozens have cited this as the only option.

Only five respodents have cited "civil war" or "revolution" as a possibility for Russia, less so than those who said Putin's regime could end a Russian military defeat.

One expert has assumed that Putin's end could spark a major disaster, such as a nuclear power plant disaster or a global economic shock.

Another said Putin could be put down in a "slight coup" in case he has a serious illness.

None of the respodents mentioned the end of Putin's regime through the election. Journalist Andrei Zakharov said that "Russia will be free day."

Emrat e zakonshëm

Experts were also asked to name Putin's potential successor in two different scenarios, one when Putin himself participates in the selection process — as former President Boris Yeltsin did when he nominated Putin — and the second, whether Putin dies or cannot participate in the process.

In the first scenario, 19 experts mentioned the current Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, while 18 others mentioned State Council Secretary and Former Putin watchman Alexei Dymin.

Other names included Moscow's president Sergei Sobyanin, former President Dmitry Medvedev and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.

Two experts said Putin could choose his youngest daughter, Katerina Tikhonova, while another mentioned the name of Putin's eldest daughter, Maria Vorontsova.

In the second scenario, in which Putin would not be involved in the selection process, most of the respodents mentioned Mishustin's name, while Sobyan came second.

Seven of the president's advisers, including former Head of the Federal Security Service Nikolai Patrushev, also mentioned the president's adviser.

Five others mentioned patrushev's son, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev.
In total, experts have named 34 names of figures who could rise to power after Putin, including 75-year-old Valentina Matviyenko, currently head of the Federal Council, as well as 37-year-old Tikhonova.

An expert also mentioned the leader of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, despite constant reports that he is facing serious health problems.

Another expert named exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, 61, as a potential candidate after Putin.

Khodorkovsky was the only opposition figure to be mentioned by the respodents.

Alexei Navalny, Putin's most vocal opponent in the last decade, died suddenly in February while in an Arctic prison after three and a half years behind bars.

Many experts have said predicting Putin's successor to power is unlikely, because it all depends on the situation created.

"In the event of any sudden change, whoever takes the position of prime minister has the most chance of being a successor," said one analyst, who asked not to be named.
"It's impossible to know now," he added, noting that few people would mention Nikita Krushchev's name as a successor to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

Russian political analyst Fyodor Krasheninnikov has mentioned the complexity of Putin's governing system.

"We don't even know who really makes up Putin's closest circle."

Sergei Sanovich, a researcher at Stanford University's Hoover Institute, said he believes a transition to power in Russia may not happen until 2036, when Putin's sixth presidential term ends.

"If it happens now, I think the successor will be the new Patrushev," he said. "But I don't think this will happen any earlier than 2036, when Dmitry Patrushev will be 60 years old. That means that someone younger can win."


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