Vladimir Putin is facing an increasingly difficult situation in the war in Ukraine and, instead of seeking a way out of the conflict, is considering the possibility of further escalation.
According to a report by The Economist, the Russian president believes that ending the war without taking control of all of Donbas could pose a threat not only to his power, but also to his life.
A person close to the Kremlin circle told The Economist that Putin told aides: "They're going to hang me."
After weeks of discussions over the summer, Putin reportedly decided not to reduce the war but to further increase the pressure.
Big losses, but limited results
One of the Kremlin's main problems remains the lack of tangible results in relation to the extraordinary costs of the war.
The conflict is dragging on, with Ukrainian drones striking deeper and deeper into Russian territory. At the same time, the sense of normalcy in the daily lives of Russian citizens is gradually weakening.
According to The Economist, discontent is growing within Russian society, while the situation looks even bleaker among the political and economic elite.
Three possible directions of escalation
Faced with this situation, the Kremlin could take several steps simultaneously.
Among the possibilities mentioned are:
increased air and missile attacks on Ukraine;
the expansion of sabotage and hybrid warfare against European countries;
sending 300,000 to 400,000 new troops to the front, without officially announcing a new mobilization.
Such a mobilization would be a politically costly decision for the Kremlin, especially at a time when the war is taking huge human and economic toll.
A war that risks further burdening the system
According to The Economist, Putin's problem is that escalation will not solve the problems facing the Kremlin.
On the contrary, an intensification of the war could further increase losses, economic costs, and pressure on Russian society.
In this scenario, the decision to continue the war with greater intensity could produce the opposite effect from what Putin seeks: instead of strengthening the system, it could deepen its destabilization.
For now, the Russian leader reportedly sees a withdrawal or end to the war as an existential threat to his power, making the prospect of a quick resolution to the conflict even more difficult.