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BBC Analysis: Why does France risk becoming the new sick man of Europe?

2025-09-19 22:31:21Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
BBC Analysis: Why does France risk becoming the new sick man of Europe?
France risks becoming the new sick man of Europe

Some French people felt insulted this week when they learned that their political crisis was becoming the butt of humor… in Italy.

Yet in less than two years, France has gone through five prime ministers, a record that surpasses even Rome's most turbulent times after World War II.

The new National Assembly, elected after Emmanuel Macron's sudden dissolution of parliament in July 2024, is today unable to produce a majority that can approve the budget.

The situation was further complicated by a general strike this Thursday, September 18, called by unions opposing the budget proposals. A third of teachers boycotted work, most pharmacies were closed, and the Paris metro lines remained out of service.

Newspapers in Rome and Turin reported this situation in a way that was not expected. The articles highlighted the humiliation of former Prime Minister François Bayrou, the danger of debt, and even the possibility that France would seek a bailout from the IMF.

But more than anything, the focus was on the decline of President Emmanuel Macron's brilliance.

"Where is the greatness now?" wrote the newspaper Il Messaggero.

This year alone, France is expected to spend 67 billion euros on debt service, more than any other ministry except education and defense. By the end of the decade, this figure could reach 100 billion euros a year.

Last week, Fitch downgraded France's debt, making government borrowing more expensive and reflecting distrust in the country's ability to repay its obligations.

Macron amid strikes and political paralysis

While Europe is shaken by war, populism and American insecurity, France is mired in a political, social and financial crisis. Last week, the radical group “Bloquons Tout” (“We Block Everything”) organized protests that ended in clashes with the police. But the big test came yesterday, with massive marches by unions and left-wing parties against the government’s plans.

Analyst Nicolas Baverez warned: "At this critical moment, when the sovereignty and freedom of France and Europe are at stake, the country finds itself paralyzed by chaos, incompetence and debt."

Macron says he can pull the country out of its mess, but he has only 18 months left in his second term. And many are wondering: will France emerge stronger from this crisis, or ultimately weakened, prey to extremists of the left and right?

Prime Ministers who fall one after another

The crisis began with Macron's decision to dissolve the Assembly in the summer of 2024. Instead of stability, he produced a parliament divided into three blocs: center, left, and far right.

Michel Barnier and François Bayrou tried to lead the government, but were defeated.

Bayrou, 74, tried to reduce the debt by cutting 44 billion euros from the 2026 budget, and even proposed eliminating two national holidays to increase defense funding. The result? The alliance of the left with the far right ended his political career.

Macron, tired of tensions with previous prime ministers, last week chose a confidant: Sébastien Lecornu, 39, a close friend of the president. “With Lecornu, Macron is practically also prime minister,” explains economist Philippe Aghion.

The budget challenge and the clash with the parties

Lecornu has a titanic task: he must submit a draft budget by October, which must then be approved within the year. Mathematically, this is only possible with the support of the Socialists and conservative Republicans. Meanwhile, the Socialists are demanding: the cancellation of the pension reform that raised the retirement age to 64, taxes on the super-rich and lower targets for reducing the debt.

These are unacceptable to Republicans, while the powerful business union MEDEF has warned of demonstrations if taxes are increased.

Moreover, the approach of municipal elections in March and the presidential elections in 2027 makes compromise even more difficult. Le Pen's National Rally and Mélenchon's La France Insoumise are ready to describe any agreement as "treason".

Two scenarios for France

At best, Lecornu could strike a compromise, averting an immediate crisis. But this budget would be seen as half-hearted and would push markets to further raise borrowing costs.

In the worst case, failure would bring the resignation of another prime minister and perhaps new elections, where Marine Le Pen could triumph.

Macron, from hope to "guilty"

In 2017, Emmanuel Macron came to power as a leader promising to unite left and right, business and workers, eurosceptics and euro-enthusiasts. But today, commentator Nicolas Baverez sees it differently: “Macron is the target of popular anger. He bears full responsibility for this ruin. Like any demagogue, he has reduced the country to a field of ruins.”/ Taken with abridgement from the BBC


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