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BBC analysis: Trump's dominant victory in Iowa, what it means for his rivals

2024-01-16 18:27:27Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
BBC analysis: Trump's dominant victory in Iowa, what it means for his
Trump after the victory

By Anthony Zurcher – BBC North America Correspondent

It was perhaps the least surprising victory in the history of Iowa presidential contests. Donald Trump won with an overwhelming majority in the first race within the Republicans to choose the candidate who will run for President. The gap was as deep as polls had predicted for months. But dominating the vote was only one reason why the former president appeared pleased on Monday night.

Neither of Trump's main rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, emerged as primary challengers — so the non-Trump vote remains split. Meanwhile, his most ideologically similar rival, Vivek Ramaswamy, announced he would withdraw and endorse Trump in the New Hampshire race on Tuesday. Below is a deeper look at why the results in Iowa were so significant in the race for the White House.

This is still the party of Donald Trump

Trump's victory in Iowa was historically massive. He won more votes in all but one of Iowa's 99 counties (he lost the other by a single vote). No one had ever won an Iowa game by more than 12 points. Trump's margin is close to 30% and he may have secured the majority of Republicans who went to the polls. With nearly all votes counted, Trump had won 51%, DeSantis 21% and Haley 19% of the vote.

The Iowa caucus is another poll to explain exactly why Trump's bid has been successful so far. About half of Republicans consider themselves part of Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement. Mr Trump's victory was also wide. He has made for himself young, old, men and women. He also won over evangelical and right-wing conservative voters, whom he struggled to win over in 2016.

Usually, presidential candidates who lose to Democrats fade from memory, never able to erase the stain of defeat. While Trump has managed to convince Republicans, in Iowa and at the national level, that he did not lose to Biden. A large majority of voters in Iowa told CBS they believed Trump was the winner of the 2020 presidential election, a number that reached 90% among Trump supporters.

Trump's victory is a remarkable turnaround

Trump's dominant position within the Republican Party has been unchallenged, but his victory here, in the broader context of modern American politics, is remarkable. Three years ago, he finished his first presidential term under a cloud of controversy, his campaign to defy his loss to Democrat Joe Biden culminating in the January 6 Capitol riots. He faces two criminal charges stemming from these actions.

Now, as the winner of the Iowa caucuses, he has taken an important first step toward being selected as the Republican Party's nominee in November's presidential election. Trump still has work to do to become a "Republican standard bearer". He faces a bigger challenge from Haley in New Hampshire next week, where polls show his once-dominant lead has dwindled to nearly single digits. But he is still the overwhelming favorite in the race.

No clear rival emerged from Iowa

Analyzing the results of Iowa, most of the electoral intrigue was focused on which candidate would take second place after Trump. In the end, it turned out to be DeSantis who walked away with the second prize. That's not much of an accomplishment, though, given how narrowly the Florida governor closed in on Ms. Haley for investing so much time and resources in Iowa.

The result, and DeSantis' vow to continue with his campaign, does not appear to ensure any head-to-head showdown with Trump in the coming days. In fact, the result could make Trump's victory even bigger, as his divide-and-conquer strategy is still in effect.

The only candidate who dropped out, Ramaswamy, will further clear the way for the former president, as opinion polls show his supporters have Trump as their second choice. He only got about 8% of the vote in Iowa.

The Iowa result will allow the former president to further focus his battle on President Biden, something he eagerly did during his victory speech on Monday night. For their part, Democrats appear to be welcoming the confrontation and the opportunity to exploit what they see as Mr. Trump's weaknesses. A string of dominant victories, starting in Iowa, will give the former president momentum.


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