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Will he be in charge of the EC again? Here are Von der Leyen's chances

2024-02-19 22:37:54Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA BERND RIEGERT
Will he be in charge of the EC again? Here are Von der Leyen's chances
Ursula von der Leyen

Ursula von der Leyen wants to run for a second term as president of the European Commission and lead the conservatives in the European elections. What are her chances to be in charge of EC again?

Ursula von der Leyen (65) is at the age when most people in Europe retire. But she would not like to retire just yet. This German Christian Democrat has been leading the European Commission since 2019, as the first woman in this position. Now she would like another mandate, until 2029.

From a position of power, Von der Leyen would like to see through to the end what she has started with the European economy and Ukraine's EU membership. "I think Ursula von der Leyen did a good job. I know this job has a lot of difficulties," Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourger who previously headed the Commission, said recently.

On Monday, von der Leyen officially told a party meeting of her Christian Democratic Union in Berlin that she is ready for another five years. The CDU leadership unanimously approved her candidacy on Monday.

In two weeks, the European People's Party is due to announce that von der Leyen is the "list holder" for June's European elections. She will not be on the ballot, but that way voters know that, in the event of a moderate Conservative victory, she will lead the Commission.

What does Orbani mean?

However, the 27 heads of state and government of the EU member states decide who they will propose for the head of the Brussels administration. "Von der Leyen's chances are not bad, but it will definitely not be easy," Yanis Emanoulidis of the Center for European Policy in Brussels tells us.

Because the leadership position is only part of the package that will be put in place in the summer, this analyst explains. It remains to be seen who will lead the European Council, who will be the EU's high representative for foreign policy and the president of the European Parliament. All this requires the agreement of the 27 leaders of the EU countries. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, on the other hand, is a staunch political opponent of Ursula von der Leyen, who could veto her. "He will definitely have requests for his consent," says Emanoulidis.

He recalls that Von der Leyen would also have to go before the deputies of the European Parliament, where in 2019 he had a narrow majority of only nine votes more than needed. This time, finding a majority will be an even more difficult task, as polls give right-wing populists the chance to enter the 720-seat parliament with more MPs.

Italian Social Democrat MP Bernardo Benifei told DW that the European Union needs a turnaround, not another term of Ursula von der Leyen. "She is trying to be the best friend of nationalists like Meloni. She has created migration rules that are against the interests of the EU."

Much has started and little has ended?

Observers in Brussels generally appreciate how von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, has proven herself in crises such as the pandemic and after Russia's attack on Ukraine.

"It was not easy for Mrs Von der Leyen to maintain unity. She succeeded, so she deserves praise," Juncker said. Martin Schirdevan, an MEP from the German left, sees it differently. "What did she really achieve? ? She is a master of announcements and producing beautiful headlines. But there are no results in protecting democracy, fighting poverty and strengthening industry in Europe," he told DW.

Emanoulidis also says that Von der Leyen often puts more on the table than she can digest. "But sometimes it is necessary in the way of communication and the pressure that is exerted when compromises are required at the European level and when leadership has to be shown."

What happens if Trump comes again?

In 2019, von der Leyen began her job in Brussels claiming to lead a "geopolitical" European Commission. First, it tried to deepen cooperation with African countries. But the Russian aggression pushed all this into the background.

In general, the European Commission does not find it easy to make foreign policy, says Emanoulidis. "In foreign and security policy, member states have jurisdiction and must decide unanimously," he says. "It is really complicated at the European level".

A second term for von der Leyen would not be easier. From next year, Donald Trump may be in the White House again. The two of them do not have a good relationship. There are fears of a trade war between the US and the EU. "It will be a challenge for all of us," says EU expert Emanulidis. "Only the president of the European Commission will not have problems. We will all have problems within the EU, but also within NATO"./ DW


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