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"Will Erdogan make war?"

2022-10-06 17:39:36Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA KAKI BALI

 

"Will Erdogan make war?"
Greece-Turkey: Language of war, but not war

 

War is being talked about more and more often. Meanwhile, international pressure on the two countries is increasing. How likely is it that the situation will calm down?

"Will Erdogan make war?" With this question, the Greek media have currently increased the tension of the country's public. This question is asked daily on news shows, while scary music plays in the background. According to the media, this is a topic that is doing well. The dramatic staging of fear-mongering also helps the Greek government, which finds it easier to warn the country of "international dangers" than to deal with the difficult topics of domestic politics, such as the never-ending wiretapping scandal or that of rising inflation.

Despite the media exaggeration and political instrumentalization of the topic, there is no doubt that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is currently speaking threateningly: “Hey, Greek! Take a look at the story. If you continue like this, the price you will pay will be very high", he said several times in the activities of the past weeks.

Thus Erdogan remembers the year 1922, when the founder of the Turkish state, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk won over the Greek army and caused the expulsion of the Greek population from Anatolia. One hundred years after the "Anatolian catastrophe", as the Greeks call this event, Erdogan threatens with its repetition: "We may come one night by surprise," he says. Is Erdogan able to handle such a war?

Is such a thing said seriously? Will the Turkish president really send fighter jets to attack the Greek islands in the eastern Aegean, as he has shown from time to time? These questions will also be asked at the next high-level meeting, the founding meeting of the European Political Union, which will be held on Thursday and Friday (6./7.10.2022) in Prague. This meeting is a new format of the EU, where Turkey and the countries of the Western Balkans have also been invited. The question is again, if and how, the EU and Turkey will get closer again and cooperate better, taking into account the Russian war against Ukraine. De-escalation of growing Greek-Turkish tensions will be of great importance for this.

According to experts and observers, one thing is clear: Erdogan's language may sound belligerent, but there is a good chance that those things are not being said seriously. Because the head of the Turkish state is simply unable to afford a war against Greece, a member country of the EU and NATO.

NATO and the US will not allow war

The reasons are manifold: On the one hand, Erdogan's chances of winning such a war are very uncertain. On the other hand, he should be clear that NATO would never allow Turkey, its member country, to commit an act of war against Greece, especially the US would not allow it.

Since the crisis of 1996, for the uninhabited islands of the Aegean called Imia by the Greeks and Kardaka by the Turks, when there were military confrontations between Greece and Turkey, NATO and the EU prevented the escalation of the situation. If the situation worsens again, they will intervene more decisively. Because, because of Russia's war against Ukraine, NATO cannot afford to show weakness by allowing a military conflict between its two member countries. Even the American military bases in Crete and in Alexandroupolis, in the east of Greece, are concretely very important for the military supply of NATO troops in Eastern Europe and for military aid to Ukraine.

Policy of "controlled tensions"

However, a so-called "hot episode" in the Aegean is not completely ruled out, it could start from some Turkish invasion of one of the small, uninhabited Greek islands, of which there are many in the eastern Aegean. However, that would be the worst case scenario.

One thing is certain, that since the failed military coup of 2016, Erdogan follows a policy of "controlled tensions" towards Athens, sometimes using harsh language, sometimes less harsh language. In the middle of next year, Turkey will hold parliamentary and presidential elections, so Erdogan's language now sounds very military. It seems that in this way he seeks to satisfy the nationalist spectrum of voters.

 

"Will Erdogan make war?"
Surveillance technologies between Greece and Turkey along the Evro River

 

Even a possible incident with the planes could ignite the explosive situation. Currently, Turkish warplanes penetrate Greek airspace almost daily and have to be forced back by Greek planes. So far, none of the pilots, neither Turkish nor Greek, have lost their temper. But a fatal error cannot be ruled out as a possibility.

"Dangerous Games"

For years, Turkey has threatened Greece with war if Athens does not set a 12-mile limit around the islands in its territorial waters, as required by international law.

However, the Turkish president has meanwhile turned the tables and pretends that Greece is threatening Turkey with war. He complains that Greece is playing "dangerous games" in the region, because it is militarily arming several Greek islands, and promises that "it will use, if necessary, all the means at its disposal" to "protect the rights of the people." Turkish."

The standard answer of Greek diplomacy is: "We do not threaten Turkey. We expect Ankara to give up Casus Belli, the provocation of war, and we are ready for dialogue on the basis of international law and international laws on maritime waters." says for example a statement of the Greek Foreign Ministry. The Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, tries to appear calm. In a speech held before the UN General Assembly, he said, for example, addressing Turkey: "I tell you that Greece is not a danger to your country. We are not enemies. We are neighbors."

Rendezvous in Prague?

It is true that Erdogan has so far shown no willingness to dialogue with Mitsotakis, but Ibrahim Kalin, the most important adviser to the Turkish president, has not ruled out the possibility of a meeting between Erdogan and Mitsotakis, within the framework of the EU high-level meeting in Prague.

"Will Erdogan make war?"
Mitsotakis and Erdogan during a meeting in Istanbul

However, Mitsotakis for his part has no great interest in developing any substantive dialogue with Erdogan. It is important for him to appear as a good international partner and a reliable partner, but at the same time he knows that his party, the conservative party Nea Dimokratia and the majority of voters who vote for him, are against the talks on the settlement of the Greek-Turkish conflicts. Nationalism is not only present in Turkey, but also in Greece, where parliamentary elections will also be held next year.

In the event that international pressure will have an effect, and a meeting between Erdogan and Mitsotakis will take place in Prague, then both of them will sit at the negotiating table with the same attitude: surely neither of them will promote constructive dialogue to end the conflict once and for all./ DW

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