The Euro has started the week with a new record falling in the exchange rate with the Lek.
According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the Euro was exchanged on Tuesday at 117.57 Lek, down by another 0.5 Lek from the level it closed last week. Foreign exchange agents say that the fall of the Euro is already linked to the high flows associated with the summer season.
For the first five months of the year, the arrivals of foreign citizens in Albania increased by 55% and even exceeded the figures recorded in the period before the pandemic, in 2019.
Pritshmëritë e subjekteve të lidhura me turizmin edhe për sezonin veror janë shumë të larta dhe me shumë të ngjarë turizmi hyrës këtë vit pritet të regjistrojë nivelet më të larta historike. Veç rritjes së numrit të turistëve, një ndikim në shtimin e prurjeve valutore hyrëse po jep edhe rritja e ndjeshme e çmimeve që po aplikojnë këtë vit bizneset e sektorit të turizmit.
Edhe ecuria e eksporteve këtë vit paraqitet mjaft pozitive, me një rritje vjetore prej 46% për pesëmujorin janar-maj. Eksportet po nxiten nga rritja e çmimeve, sidomos në segmentin e mineraleve, metaleve dhe materialeve të ndërtimit.
The trade deficit has increased by 9% compared to a year ago, but it is estimated that the improvement of the balance in trade in services has balanced this effect. By the end of the first quarter of the year, statistics show that the current account deficit narrowed by 22% on an annual basis.
A constant trend observed by the banks is also the high inflows of the British Pound from the foreign exchange points. Even the inflows in Pounds indirectly affect the further devaluation of the Euro, because it is the reference foreign currency for the Albanian economy and financial system, so the banks keep their currency positions mainly in this currency.
Evidence of the high offer is also the result of the next auction for the purchase of currency, which was organized today by the Bank of Albania. According to market data, a total of 13 million Euros were purchased at the auction, while the amount offered at the auction reached 16.2 million Euros.
The estimated amount to be purchased in the first round of the auction was between 5 and 8 million euros, and the Bank of Albania decided to buy the entire upper value of the range of eight million euros.
The purchases in the first round were made at a rate that was between 117.4 and 117.64 Lek. The weighted average exchange rate was 117.56 Lek. The Bank of Albania also exercised the purchase option in the second round, for an additional amount of 5 million Euros, with an average exchange rate of 117.56 Lek.
Although the Bank of Albania bought 13 million Euros in a single day, which is very significant for the Albanian foreign exchange market, even today's auction did not affect the fall of the Euro.
Experts expect this trend to continue in the coming weeks, which also represent the peak of the tourist season. According to them, the only factor that can soften the fall of the Euro could be the resumption of purchases by companies in the energy sector. Rumors are circulating in the foreign exchange market that KESH can buy around 30 million Euros for its own needs, but such an operation has not been officially confirmed.
Meanwhile, the Euro is also losing points in the international markets. The exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar returned to the 1 to 1 ratio, for the first time in 20 years, driven by the rapid monetary tightening pursued by the US Federal Reserve. However, foreign exchange market agents do not believe that developments in international markets have any significant impact on the Euro-Lek exchange rate, which is mainly influenced by domestic demand and supply ratios.
However, the devaluation of the Euro against the Dollar is also reflected in the exchange rate of the Lek against the American currency. The dollar was exchanged today at 117.51 Lek, 0.79 Lek more compared to the end of last week. The dollar exchange rate has already reached the highest level since 2017.
The overvaluation of the Dollar plays a role in increasing the price of some vital raw materials that are quoted in this currency, such as, for example, fuel or wheat./ Monitor