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Turkey, a 100-year-old democracy with successes and failures: What happens if Erdogan loses the elections?

2022-12-14 17:53:30Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA UNVEREN BURAK
Turkey, a 100-year-old democracy with successes and failures: What happens if
Istanbul - Kemal Ataturk Bosphorus Bridge that connects the European and Asian parts of Turkey between the two continents

The elections expected to be held in Turkey in 2023, the year of the hundredth anniversary of the establishment of the state, may mark a turning point in the country's history.

The Republic of Turkey was established 100 years ago. Since then the country has experienced many events, starting with the transition from a one-party system to a multi-party system, the military coup of 1960, street violence that lasted more than a decade in the seventies, followed by another coup and several coalition governments that have been unstable in the 1990s, as well as the Islamist takeover in 2002.

Despite these small and large failures, the Turkish state, created according to Western ideals such as democracy, equality and the rule of law and secularism, has survived and will celebrate its centenary next year. How stable are Turkey's democratic institutions now that they are a hundred years old?

'One of the most disappointing examples'

Under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has shifted its focus from the West to the East. It has become more aligned with Islamic values, made new friends and allies in the Arab world, and engaged militarily in other countries, including Somalia and Qatar, where Turkey's presence is welcome. These developments have not satisfied all Turks, because they have all been associated with the growth of authoritarianism.

Sinem Adar, an expert on Turkey at the Center for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) in Berlin, gives a negative overview of Turkey's developments under Erdogan. "Today, Turkey is an example of increasing authoritarian practices," she notes. "Since the late 2000s, the country has moved further and further away from the rule of law and effective separation of powers."

And Adar is especially disappointed with the direction that developments have taken at a time when conditions have been favorable for making progress. "Given seven decades of experience with multiparty elections and integration into Western institutional architecture, the failure of Turkish democracy can be said to be one of the most disappointing examples in global trends," she says.

Islamism has gained political power

One of the basic values ​​of the republic has been secularism, or laicism, one of the basic concepts of the French model of the separation of power between the state and religion. The Ottoman Caliphate was established in 1924, almost a year after the establishment of the republic. In fact, Dijanet, the so-called Directorate for Religious Affairs, was created to give the state greater control over the political influence of Islamism.

It is not wrong to say that thanks to the policies and discussions instigated by Erdogan, religion plays a greater political role in Turkey today than 20 years ago. Adar points out that since the establishment of the republic, there has always been "a thin dividing line between religion and politics in Turkey". But, the last 20 years, years of the rule of justice of Erdogan and his party, AKP, the Development Party, have brought great changes in terms of "the breadth and depth of the intervention of religion in social life, intervention that is done with help of the state," says Adar.

During the time of the AKP government, Dijaneti has become a major political actor, explains Adar. "Dijanet has gained power like never before by increasing its political weight and access to resources. Especially after the failed coup of 2016, Dijaneti has taken a key role in the daily reproductions of the narrative according to which the Turkish ruling elites led by Erdogan embody the will of the people and protect the country's authentic values ​​and national values, as well as the territorial integrity of the state," she says.

Can Erdogan lose?

On June 18, 2023, Turks will go to the polls to elect the next president. Some polls say Erdogan, whose policies are not uncontroversial to everyone, could lose if the opposition manages to run with a single candidate. This case is still pending. The so-called Table of Six, which refers to the six opposition parties that have come together, has not announced the candidate or candidates so far. The table of six seeks to reverse the parliamentary system and impose limits on the president's power, which has been greatly increased under Erdogan, helped by major constitutional changes made in 2018.

Turkey, a 100-year-old democracy with successes and failures: What happens if
President Erdogan has declared that he will run for re-election for the last time in 2023

Contrary to widespread belief, even in Turkey itself, the country still has functioning democratic institutions, which ensure free and fair elections to some extent. 2019 gave a signal of hope to those who wish to see a different government: In local elections, opposition candidates won against AKP candidates in the country's two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara. This shows that Turkey still has functioning democratic institutions and elections can currently be won by opponents of those in power, which is not the case in other authoritarian regimes, such as Russia.

But does the opposition really have a chance to win the June elections? According to Adari, the opposition has the opportunity to present itself now as a reliable and strong alternative against the ruling party, especially if you take into account "the increase in social anger in the face of the government crisis, accompanied by the deep economic crisis and the deterioration of relations between the elites and the alliance in power in Turkey."

But for there to be changes in power, the elections must be fair. "To win the elections, [the opposition must first] create [...] security in the polling stations," says Adar.

What if Erdogan loses?

But what path will Turkey take if power passes into other hands? AKP is proud of certain developments such as the international success of drones manufactured in Turkey, the Bayraktar TB-2 drones. Turkey has made plans to produce its own fighter jets as well as electric cars. What will happen to these projects if the opposition comes to power?

According to Adari, a new government will be able not only to continue with these projects but also to develop them further in a practical and democratic aspect. "Aspirations to create a domestic defense industry and, in general, an economy that relies on technological innovations and the latest news are very likely to continue under another government," she says.

"Another government, however, is likely to be more realistic and clear-headed in its assessment of Turkey's capabilities, and the relationship between the defense industry and foreign policy will be better institutionalized, regulated and more responsible than until now."

Where is the future of Turkey?

Considering Turkey's current developments, it can be said that the country's European future is uncertain.

The year 2023 is a decisive year both for Turkey and for Turkey-EU relations, says Cigdem Nas, the general secretary of the Foundation for Economic Development based in Istanbul, the main institute that deals with Turkey-EU relations.

"If the opposition wins, it will focus more on returning the parliamentary system, and this process also includes the democratic agenda. With such a scenario, we can expect the revitalization of Turkey's European perspective," she says.

Nas points out that the possible return of a reformed EU agenda in the post-election period "could accelerate the improvement of Turkey-EU relations, through the modernization of the customs union, and greater coordination in trade, energy, politics foreign security and immigration policy."

She says that one must be realistic: "With no significant change in Turkey's agenda for the EU, efforts to shift relations from the perspective of a candidate country to a partnership based on interests will become more visible. "

Turkey remains important

Turkey may not be a member of the club, but it remains an important partner, a privileged partner. Nas says that "Despite the freezing of EU membership talks, Turkey remains part of the extended European architecture, being an important partner for European security."

Turkey is part of NATO's southeastern wing and has the second largest army within the Alliance, turning this country into an important security creator. Especially in the current conditions, when NATO seeks to have maximum unity to face potential aggressors like Russia and China, no one in the alliance would like to lose such an important member.

While it does not seem that the Russian aggression against Ukraine will end, Ankara's role as a mediator, a role with which it has had some success so far, is expected to bring diplomatic fruits for Turkey next year./ DW


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