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ANALYSIS: Harris beat Trump in the debate, but that doesn't translate into a guarantee of victory in the election

2024-09-11 18:33:25Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN
ANALYSIS: Harris beat Trump in the debate, but that doesn't translate into
Trump and Harris

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in a heads-up coin toss ahead of their presidential debate - but that's all he won.

From the opening moments of Tuesday night's debate, when the vice president walked up to Trump's podium and forced him to shake her hand, she dictated the terms of their critical clash, exactly eight weeks before Election Day.

She seemed energetic and filled with a positive vision for the future. The vice president, who has sometimes struggled in spontaneous situations, gave the most compelling performance of her political career. Trump, who had entered the debate anticipating that he would prove boxing champion Mike Tyson's maxim that "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth," was taken aback by the flurry of blows and sat down instead. to some.

At a time when nearly a third of voters suggested in a recent poll that they wanted to know more about Harris, the vice president's performance seemed more likely to expand her coalition. Trump, meanwhile, did little to change perceptions about his dystopian intentions among key state voters who will decide the election. He often seemed to wish he was still debating his former rival, President Joe Biden.

Debate victories do not always translate into election victories

It often takes days or weeks for a presidential debate to penetrate the electorate and for lasting impressions to take hold. Candidates who triumph on the debate stage do not always win the election. Both Trump in 2016 and President George W. Bush in 2004 were judged to have lost debates but went on to win the White House.

And while Democrats were euphoric after Harris' performance, partisans often judge a debate based on their own political preferences. Even if he loses ground after the debate, Trump has long had the upper hand on the two main issues in the election — the economy and immigration. With many voters still awaiting the benefits of the post-pandemic economic recovery, it is not certain that either debate will be a deciding factor in their vote. And Trump's dark messages on immigration and crime may be hyperbolic, but they have proven powerful in the past. There is also always the possibility that shock events at home or abroad in the next couple of months could upset the balance.

While it's too early to tell whether Harris' strong performance will translate into new momentum, her campaign will be optimistic that she has improved her chances among perhaps 200,000 mobile voters who will decide the election. future in a handful of states.

Harris sprung the trap, Trump kept falling for it

Harris wasted no time checking in on her targets Tuesday night.

She spoke directly to viewers at home, promising to ease the burdens of working Americans struggling with high food and housing prices. She grilled Trump on the size of his crowd and called him weak. And, surprisingly, he walked into the trap every time, with outbursts of anger fueling her claims that he is unfit for a new term and that the country has a brief chance to move on from its bitter chaos.

In essence, Harris vindicated the Democrats' decision to drop Biden as their nominee, conducting a forensic dismantling of Trump's character, policies and legacy that was beyond the president in his disastrous June debate that ended his campaign for re-election.

Taylor Swift, whose megastar endorsement the Trump team falsely claimed last month through the use of AI, apparently thought so too, declaring as soon as the debate ended, “I'm going to cast my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the presidential election of 2024.”

When Trump got nervous, Harris didn't respond in kind, but laughed and rested her chin on her hand several times. The second time she did it, it looked contrived, but the gesture could become an iconic emblem of social media debate.

The former president's inability to resist the bait constantly dangled in front of him meant the most formidable political performer of modern times spent the evening being more self-destructive than destructive to his opponent. This was never more evident than when he repeated a racist slur about Haitian immigrants eating pets. Harris, after watching his opponent confirm her accusations of his extremism, just shook his head.

After refusing to engage in Trump's efforts to make the election a referendum on her race and gender, the vice president offered a much more direct denial of her opponent on Tuesday. She brought up his past demands to execute the Central Park Five and his lies about President Barack Obama's birthplace, after painting him as a divisive force seeking to exploit America's deepest historical wounds for his own gain.

"I think it's a tragedy that we have somebody who wants to be president who has repeatedly, throughout his career, tried to use race to divide the American people," she said.

Harris' performance was not perfect. She avoided answering her first question – the classic consideration of whether voters are better off now than they were four years ago. She also did not directly say whether she regretted the deaths of 13 US service personnel killed in 2021 in the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, whose deaths have become a centerpiece of Trump's campaign. But her evasions also showed how she has become a more effective political performer as she focused on her talking points and Trump was unable to question her effectively.

Trump didn't do his best

Trump's inability to focus on a sustained attack on Harris or to shrug off her transparent efforts to distract him confirmed the fears of many Republicans frustrated by his failure so far to deal effectively. effective with his new opponent.

Ironically, Trump suffered from the same deficit that plagued Biden in their June debate — he couldn't pin down his opponent and was unable to articulate a strong plan for the future.

Trump often made analogies that only regular viewers of the conservative media would understand. And several times, it seemed like the former president came out for a debate, but his rhetoric was more akin to one of his wild rallies. In defense of his first term and global leadership, he cited strongman Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, adding weight to Harris' claim that he worships foreign autocrats. In support of his bogus claims, he said he was backed by Fox News opinion leaders — in a way that may have pleased his core voters, but also suggested that his life in the conservative fishbowl has eroded the ability his to speak to more moderate voters.

Trump's team had fought to have the microphones turned off when the candidates weren't speaking — apparently to frustrate the vice president's desire to fact-check the former president in real time and limit the temptation to interrupt him. But in this case, the restrictions hurt Trump. He was forced to remain mute.

One way to judge a debate is to turn down the volume on the TV and watch the body language of the candidates. On Tuesday night, Trump winced and flexed the muscles around his mouth as his face looked like thunder. Harris pumped her fists with a familiar smile and looked directly into the eyes of viewers at home.

The former president's greatest failure was that he failed to investigate Harris' greatest weakness. Trump created very few of those moments to unsettle his rival. It took him until his closing statement to deliver his strongest possible line — that Harris, as a vital part of an administration for more than three years, had done none of the things she now says she would. did

He also faltered on an issue that is proving disastrous for his standing among female voters in the polls — abortion.

The former president's strongest moments came right at the end of the debate, when he criticized Harris and Biden for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It raised the specter of Russian nuclear escalation and presented itself as the only thing standing between the United States and World War III. His pledges to end the conflict may be closer to the heartstrings than Biden's pledges to stick with Kiev as long as necessary.

But Harris was probably right when he said that Trump's plan can only be achieved by concluding a peace that favors President Vladimir Putin.

And even during his clashes with Harris over the war in Ukraine, Trump seemed to be striving for an election campaign that was much more palatable to him than the one he's running now.

"You're not running against Joe Biden, you're running against me," the vice president told him, in a statement that helps explain Trump's disorientation and could yet define the entire election.


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