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The natural increase of Albania's population is close to zero for the third year in a row

2023-02-13 09:05:00Aktualitet SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The natural increase of Albania's population is close to zero for the third

In the last three years, Albania has had a natural increase close to zero, due to high deaths and declining births.

INSTAT data show that in 2022, the country's natural increase, which measures the difference between births and deaths, was only 675 people, the lowest in history, except for the two pandemic years of 2020-2021, when there was a high number of unusual deaths. 2021 is the only one in Albania's history with a negative addition (-3,296), while in 2020 the addition was minimal at only 470 people.

But, while in the period 2020-2021, the indicator worsened due to the high number of deaths as a result of the pandemic, in 2022, the number of deaths stabilized, returning close to the historical trend, and the main effect was the acceleration of the trend birth control.

According to INSTAT, 22.9 thousand deaths were recorded in 2022, with a strong contraction of 37% compared to the previous year when it was the peak of the pandemic, returning to the normal pre-pandemic trend (deaths in 2022 were about 5% more higher than the average of 2016-2019).

In the country, 23.6 thousand babies were born for the same period, with a decrease of 13.5% compared to the previous year. This is the lowest number of births ever recorded in the country since 1934, when the data was reported.

This indicator only measures the natural addition of the population, while the real population may have shrunk more due to negative net migration, with population outflows, especially of young people, that have accelerated in recent years.

How the population is falling

Historical data show that the natural increase in population reached its highest historical level in 1990, with nearly 64,000 more births than deaths. In that year, a record level of 82,000 births and 18,000 deaths was recorded. The median age of the population (which divides the population into two equal parts) was then about 24 years old, according to data from the United Nations Organization (UN).

Then, mass immigration after the 1990s and changing lifestyles that led to a decline in births per woman influenced the aging of the population, which was accompanied by a decline in births and an increase in deaths. In 2022, the median age of the population reached 38.2 years.

The new wave of immigration, which is accelerating in recent years, is expected to further worsen this trend. The UN predicts that in 2055 the median age of the population will reach 50 years.

The last INSTAT census was conducted in 2011, according to which the population was around 2.8 million inhabitants. The census has been postponed several times, first due to the pandemic in 2020, then due to the lack of infrastructure, and it is expected to start taking place only in September of this year.

Indirect estimates from residence permits granted by European Union countries show that since 2008, when Eurostat reports the data, EU states have granted a total of 756,000 Albanian citizens to Albanians. By international institutions, the number of residence permits for citizens of a country is counted as immigration.

The consequences of the natural shrinking of the population, gradual aging and especially the new wave of young people's immigration are clearly felt in the local economy, as in the lack of labor force, the contraction of consumption, while in the future the effects are expected to be greater in the decline of productivity and the slowdown of the economy as well as the deterioration of the pension scheme./ Monitor


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