The Caspian Sea, the world's largest landlocked sea, is experiencing a dramatic shrinkage that has left dry shores up to 50 kilometers from the waterline. Scientists warn that the phenomenon, driven by climate change, is turning lagoons into deserts and rendering port infrastructure worthless.

Since 2020, the water level has fallen by about 30 centimeters each year, reaching a historical minimum in July 2025. New projections show that even with global warming limited to two degrees, the Caspian level could fall by up to 10 meters compared to 2010. In the most dire scenarios, the loss could reach up to 18 meters.

The ecological consequences are dramatic: four out of ten unique Caspian ecosystems are at risk of extinction, while the rare Caspian seal could lose over 80% of its habitat.

The impact on people is equally worrying: some 15 million people who depend on fishing, transport and the energy industry are at risk of losing their livelihoods. The decline in the Volga River is hampering trade and costing the ports of Aktau and Baku billions.