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"Empty" Northern Italy, by 2040 there will be 2.3 million fewer inhabitants

2024-04-09 10:41:32Lifestyle SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

"Empty" Northern Italy, by 2040 there will be 2.3 million fewer

Italy, and specifically the Northern regions, are approaching an "ice" demographic future. A situation without new immigration or a sudden increase in births will cause a drastic decline in the labor force by 2040. But also a contraction of the domestic market, so less consumption and investment.

The consequences will be felt especially in Lombardy -673 thousand, Piedmont -493 thousand and Veneto -387 thousand. The absolute decline will be fast and immediate: -143 thousand units per year in the next seven years in Northern Italy, on ; then softens to -133 thousand in the following ten years.

The territorial and economic effects of this phenomenon will be significant. Population decline will not be uniform. It will be the most remote and isolated centres, with fewer services and lower job and social life prospects, that will pay the highest bill. The abandonment of these sites will cause, for example, the interruption of forest and soil maintenance, with an increase in hydrogeological risk.

There will be a recomposition of the pyramid according to the age of the population, with an increase in the elderly and a decrease in the young; the real estate market will experience a strong reaction, as well as the accumulation of private savings. The "Ice Age" will naturally affect consumption: fewer diapers for newborns, more health care for the elderly.

 


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