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Another crisis is coming that we haven't noticed yet, the West worried by attacks on oil refineries

2024-10-19 08:42:16Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Another crisis is coming that we haven't noticed yet, the West worried by

When Volodymyr Zelensky spoke in Brussels during the European Council to present his plan for Victory, he expected to get an enthusiastic response from the 27 leaders of the European Union. To his surprise, he felt skepticism about the demand for an official "invitation" for Ukraine to join NATO immediately, even though the conflict with Russia is still ongoing.

Before presenting the plan in Brussels, Zelensky had spoken in the Ukrainian parliament to outline his precise strategy - divided into five points - aimed at strengthening Ukraine's position and ending the war with Russia by next year.

His proposal, however, did not receive the approval of the domestic opposition, of a nationalist nature, which claims that the plan was conceived and designed specifically to be rejected by the Allies. A possible rejection by the countries that support Kiev could be used in favor of Zelenskiy to appear before his people and, claiming that he has been abandoned by allies, advance a new war strategy. This is the narrative proposed by the Ukrainian opposition, which at the moment has no concrete confirmation. Some signals in this sense may have already arrived.

Let's take a step back to exactly October 7, 2024. It's 4:30 a.m., the darkness of the night has been ripped apart by the flames of a fire that broke out at an oil depot in Feodosia, a city in Russian-occupied Crimea. The explosion is suspected to have occurred after a drone attack. Residents said they heard several loud explosions around 4:30 a.m., shortly before the fire started. The Astra Telegram channel later clarified that the burning structure was the Marine Oil Terminal, previously hit by drones in March.

The dynamic left little room for doubt as to who had given the green light to the attack. A few hours later, confirmation arrived from the Kiev authorities: Ukrainian missile forces launched an attack against the Feodosia terminal, the largest oil processing plant in Crimea for the movement of oil products. The Ukrainian attack on Feodosia, the latest in a long series, reportedly resulted in the damage and destruction of 11 storage tanks.

Attacks on Russian refineries: what will be the consequences for us?
Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries could signal a new phase in Ukraine's war, largely financed by fossil fuel revenues. Russia is heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues, which accounted for nearly a third of the country's total federal revenue in 2023 and 42 percent in 2022. Therefore, fossil fuel revenues play a crucial role in financing Russia's expensive car of the war.

Moscow has to face another unexpected event. Russia also fears a reckless move by Saudi Arabia, which does not want to lose its position as the world's oil king. In fact, Riyadh wants to increase crude oil production to respond to the failure of other oil states to coordinate supply cuts to raise oil prices to around $100 a barrel, compared to $70 currently. This is a move which, if implemented, would have the consequences of the war in Ukraine. According to what Alexandra Prokopenko, an economist and researcher, told Politico, a drop of more than $20 in the price of oil at the current exchange rate would cause Russia a loss of 1.8 trillion rubles ($20 billion). income, equal to about 1 percent of its GDP.

Meanwhile, Moscow has opened other channels to carry out its role as a seller of fossil fuels without concern. Despite Western sanctions imposed after the war in Ukraine, Russia has built a fleet of over 400 'ghost' vessels that currently move around four million barrels of oil a day outside the radar range of international authorities – and thus sanctions – generating billions of dollars in year as additional income for Vladimir Putin's war.

Amid pressure and fear, Ukraine attacks Russian oil fields
But how far can Kiev go? Ukraine has limited options on whether to strike back at Russian refineries because of pressure from the United States and allies to minimize the impact on international oil markets.

This is because, explains Francesco Sassi, researcher in energy geopolitics and energy security, Ukraine also lives in a world of interdependence, and if its defensive, offensive and military capabilities are completely dependent on the West, the energy implications should be as limited as possible. to be possible or the consequences for Kiev could be very great. Not forgetting, Sassi points out, how Russia has improved its ability to prevent such attacks.

Therefore, the preventive intensity from Russia is obvious. Moscow knows that Kiev now has a new target, despite pressure from Washington. Ukraine will target Russian oil storage sites, knowing that fossil fuel revenues fuel the Kremlin's war machine. Journalist Cristiano Tinazzi is convinced of this, but explains how Ukraine's future attacks on Russian oil and gas storage sites also depend on the availability and possession of drones.


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