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Macron towards resignation? What is expected to happen after Sunday's elections in France

2024-06-29 10:11:27Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Macron towards resignation? What is expected to happen after Sunday's

France holds elections tomorrow, which comes after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved Parliament following his defeat in the EU elections.

Sky News has made an analysis of what led up to this escape and what is expected to happen in French politics from Monday.

In France, politics is developing at a wild pace

This large country, rich, influential and vital to the stability of Europe, is suddenly facing a moment of turmoil.

There are election posters everywhere, but there is one face that seems to stand out more than anyone else – Marine Le Pen.

She has been president, rebuilt her party and even reshaped France's conversation with the far right. But now, more than ever, she sits on the brink of real power.

After Sunday's election, polls suggest her far-right Rassemblement National (RN) will be the biggest winner.

A left-wing alliance is likely to come second, while President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party is expected to come third.

If the RN took the majority of seats in the National Assembly, the country would be transformed.

Ms Le Pen's running mate, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would inevitably be installed as prime minister.

Bardella would like much tougher anti-immigration and anti-immigrant support laws. He would also like to soften some of Macron's economic reforms and is much more skeptical about European integration than Macron.

But how can two politicians who have such opposing views on a variety of issues cooperate?

This would pave the way for instability.

And it would also lead to Ms. Le Pen, once again, running for president.

France has a two-round voting system.

The results from the first round affect how people behave in the second. A higher turnout could help the RN, except in the big cities, where it would probably help their opponents. It is not a very simple mechanism, but it is agreed that the RN, led by Le Pen, but also centered on Mr. Bardella, is destined to win more seats than any other party.

And to think that just a month ago none of this could have been predicted.

Of course, everyone knew that President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party was unlikely to do well in the EU elections.

The RN, buoyed by discontent with Macron and the populist, anti-immigrant, “France First” rhetoric of Ms Le Pen and the young Bardella, was sure to advance.

Although everyone expected Macron to take no action, the opposite happened.

Shortly after the results were announced, Macron dissolved Parliament and called new elections.

His logic was that the nation – his nation – would somehow come to its senses and turn its back on radical politics in general, and the RN in particular. And the evidence is that, fueled by his iron-clad self-confidence, he was wrong.

So what's going on? More than anything, it's about two great political waves meeting each other. The first concerns Macron himself, whose popularity has simply fallen. The second has to do with the wave of populism that is sweeping through many countries.

When Macron entered the presidency seven years ago, he was seen by many as the fresh start France needed – a dynamic young man, just 39, who would shake up the nation and bring a sense of dynamism and glory. .

In the run-off against Mrs Le Pen, he presented himself as the politician of optimism and she as a figure of hatred. It worked – he won easily.

His follow-up victory a few years ago was less overwhelming but still comfortable. But then he lost control of parliament and his hold waned.

Old complaints returned, that he is "the president for the rich"; that he does not understand the problems of normal people; that his interest is to promote himself, not his country.

During the violent riots in Nanterre last year, Macron's government appeared hopeless, while his efforts to raise the retirement age sparked widespread anger.

His rivals on the left and right are emboldened

So while Mr Macron has tried to sound reasonable and condescending, he has faced harsh and unforgiving rhetoric from both left and right, which has found an ever-widening audience.

Macron is still a young man by the standards of global political leaders, but perhaps his nation is now fed up with him, especially at a time when so much space in the European political arena is being taken up by leaders who favor hard opinions over nuance moderate.

After all, the French need only look across their border with Italy to see how Giorgia Meloni's brand of right-wing populism has fared.

Sky News Data has analyzed voting data from across France and has drawn some clear links that occur over and over again.

In countries where unemployment is high, such as near the border with Spain, or where disposable income is low, such as northwestern France, the RN has a lot of support.

Ms Le Pen herself represents one of these seats in the assembly – the 11th electoral district of Pas-de-Calais.

Far-left leaders such as Jean-Luc Melenchon condemn the President for not doing enough to protect workers and for damaging the fabric of society. So do Mrs. Le Pen, Mr. Bardella and the extreme right.

Their solutions are different, with the rhetoric of Mr. Melenchon focusing on raising taxes for the rights of the rich and stronger workers, while Ms Le Pen talks about immigration and protectionism, but perhaps the specifics don't matter.

The questions that arise are:

If the RN does not get an absolute majority, what will happen if Macron refuses to appoint Bardella as prime minister?

Could Macron, such a proud leader, ever be pushed to resign?/ The article was translated and adapted by BW


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