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The Western Balkans and the unpredictable influence of Trump

2024-11-10 22:59:42Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The Western Balkans and the unpredictable influence of Trump
Donald Trump

The President-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, is no stranger to the Western Balkans, nor is the region unknown to him. Their stories are intertwined and have already set the stage for an unpredictable relationship ahead.

Trump, a Republican who also served as president from 2017 to 2021, won the November 5 election against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

"Honestly, this was the greatest political movement of all time. There has never been anything like this in this country, and maybe even beyond," said Trump on the night of the elections.

The President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, and Prime Minister Albin Kurti have congratulated him on his victory.

Kurti said that "the USA is an important ally, friend and partner of Kosovo" and that "we look forward to working together for progress and peace".

The prime minister of Albania, Edi Rama, and other leaders of the Western Balkan countries, including the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, also congratulated him on the "extraordinary victory", who expressed his belief that Serbia's voice "will now be heard more good".

"We have maintained friendly relations with [Trump's people] even when they lost their mandate, and this is now a more suitable situation for us," said Vucic.

The Prime Minister of Montenegro, Millojko Spajic, expressed enthusiasm for Trump's victory, who in a post on X wrote that "better days" will come for both America and Montenegro.

Meanwhile, the president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, who favors the separation of this entity from the rest of Bosnia, said that Trump's victory "is also our victory".

The previous administration "was unfair to us"; under Trump's leadership, we expect it to be more objective, said Dodik - sanctioned by the US for jeopardizing the Dayton Peace Agreement.

Such reactions for Vesko Garcevic, professor of the Practice of International Relations at Boston University, were expected. Moreover, he says, there has long been a proactive approach by some Balkan leaders to strengthen their positions and play a role in shaping US policy towards the Balkans.

"Two countries in the region, Serbia and Albania, have offered their spaces for investment from Trump's inner circle, hoping that this will help them deal with the Trump administration in the future."

"When it comes to Serbia, it believes that this administration will help it address the Kosovo issue. Albania, meanwhile, tries to position itself as one of the pillars, together with Serbia, of the future American approach to the Balkans", says Garčević for the Expose program of Radio Free Europe.

Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who has also served as an adviser in his administration, plans to build luxury hotels in Albania and Serbia. Even Trump's eldest son, Donald Jr., had dinner this fall with businessmen in Belgrade to discuss investment opportunities.

For Garcevic, Trump's tendencies to prioritize American interests through bilateral relations are well known. "Trump will not harmonize America's approach with the European Union, if he believes that the individual approach, the bilateral approach brings him better benefits. He will push things forward, regardless of what the EU thinks," he says.

David Kanin, professor of European Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, tells Expose that Trump's first administration has been pro-Serbian and that Serbian officials have felt respected by him.

While he notes that the president-elect is unpredictable, he expects this relationship to continue. He says that investments in Albania will be important for him, while the populist forces in North Macedonia and Montenegro will adapt to his demands, to maximize their benefits.

"The losers, as always, are America's clients: Bosniaks and Kosovars. But Trump alone should not be blamed for this. We have been forcing Bosniaks and Kosovars to make concessions to their opponents for 30 years, since the Dayton Agreement", says Kanin.

Kanin adds that Bosniaks are now lost and without a defender, assuming that Trump will continue to remain, as he says, pro-Serb.

He notes that Bosnian Croats may renew their push for a third entity and Bosniaks be weakened by it. Regarding Kosovo, he says that, for a long time, it was not doing well internationally.

"Albin Kurti can win the elections in Kosovo, but he is very unpopular abroad. Now he will face the United States, which may be even more inclined to help Vučić with his policies towards Kosovo", says Kanin.

During the first Trump administration, Kosovo and Serbia reached an agreement on the normalization of economic relations, but most of its points remained unimplemented.

In that administration, there were also officials who talked about the exchange of territories between Kosovo and Serbia - as an opportunity to resolve disputes between them - but also about the withdrawal of American troops from Kosovo. Kanin says that the latter is more likely to return as an idea.

"The exchange of territories will not return in the same way as before, because the actors have changed - at least one of them. The agreement was discussed in the framework of a reconciliation between [former president of Kosovo, Hashim] Thaçi, and Vuçiç, who trusted each other. The problem now is that there is no cooperation between Kurti and Vucic. Therefore, I believe that the agreement between them is unlikely", says Kanin.

But Garčević thinks differently from him. According to him, the idea of ​​exchanging territories can quickly reappear on the US agenda.

"I think that the USA will not want another crisis in the Balkans. It will also try to end the crisis in Ukraine, to focus on China and its potential crisis with Taiwan. If we take into account all that Trump has said during the presidential campaign, I think that China will take most of the time when it comes to the foreign policy agenda", says Garcevic.

Both REL interlocutors say that the challenges for Kosovo will be more pronounced, especially if Richard Grenell takes the position of US Secretary of State or any other high position in the new Trump administration - which has already been rumored.

In 2020, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Kurti, accused Grenell, who at that time was the representative of the United States in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, of "direct involvement" in the overthrow of his Government.

Grenell has said that Kurti is anti-American.

Faced with domestic challenges, the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and others, there are also analysts who argue that the new Trump administration may ignore developments in the Balkans and thus enable Russia to expand its influence.

One of them is Cody McClain Brown, a professor at the University of Zagreb.

"If Russia tries to influence Serbia and Montenegro more, the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina may become more unstable. When it comes to Kosovo, Trump's position will continue to hang in the balance. He may support Serbia to take back Kosovo, but it's hard to know, as he doesn't express strong opinions on the matter," says Brown.

The European Union, where all the countries of the Western Balkans are seeking membership, is also straining for Trump's return. His officials have congratulated him, but in the past have often expressed concerns about his foreign policy.

Analysts say that in the first months of next year and beyond, it will become clear whether Trump's tactics will lead to positive developments in the Western Balkans, increase hostilities or simply leave it in a state of amullie./REL


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