DREAM / The Prime Minister resigns and wakes up under the Parisian bridge!

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ANALYSIS/ Two engines of Europe stop: France joins Germany in political chaos

2024-12-08 15:50:59Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
ANALYSIS/ Two engines of Europe stop: France joins Germany in political chaos
Michel Barnier

It was clear that this would happen sooner or later. Michel Barnier became the shortest-lived prime minister in French history, lasting less than 100 days in office, after Parliament ousted him on December 4 – a feat not seen since 1962.

All of this came in the wake of shocking snap elections this summer, in which the far right and a coalition of left-wing parties won seats, forcing the politically weakened President Emmanuel Macron and his centrist forces to form an unstable minority government that could only govern with the consent of populist Marine Le Pen.

Now, there will be a new government that probably won't survive for long, as the parameters are exactly the same – a deal with the far left or the far right until a new election can be constitutionally called in the summer of 2025.

The French government collapses

Macron is likely to nominate the popular Armed Forces Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, from his Renaissance party, to try to form a new government that can navigate the volatile national assembly and get enough votes to get any work done. But the most prudent predictions are that he will either fail completely or surpass Barnier’s undesirable record for shortest tenure as prime minister.

There will be calls for Macron to step down as president before his term ends in 2027, but he is likely to stay on. That means he will continue to steer foreign policy, as French presidents of state usually do, but he will be constrained by the chaos in Paris that will absorb his energy and attention.

He will also be financially constrained, as the government collapsed due to the inability to agree on a budget with numerous austerity measures.

The deficit currently stands at 6.1% of GDP – drawing criticism and potentially financial penalties from Brussels and sparking fears in financial markets of a new eurozone crisis.

And, this comes at the absolute worst time for the EU, as the bloc's other major power, Germany, is a "lame goose" awaiting new federal elections at the end of February, with potentially protracted talks on forming a coalition.

Will there still be enough willingness to support Ukraine politically, militarily, and most importantly – financially? There will likely be enough funds for Kiev next year, but after that?

Simply put: Europe's two engines stalling amid growing demands from the incoming US administration for increased European defense spending, as well as signals of new transatlantic trade tariffs, is a scenario that someone in the Kremlin might want to exploit to fuel his power struggles in 2025, REL writes. 


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