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Is Trump now winning the war with Iran?

2026-08-27 14:53:38Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Is Trump now winning the war with Iran?

For months, the war with Iran looked like a failure: a spectacular blow at first, but no regime collapse and even the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which shook the world economy. For a while, Trump seemed ready to accept even the weakest possible deal. But in July he again launched air strikes for 13 days in a row - perhaps with a better result than had seemed possible so far.

Many people had viewed the American attacks in July as noisy but cautious and ineffective – after all, the US had not hit any targets of strategic importance. The suspicion was: Trump wants to bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table.

But there is another interpretation: after the attacks there was no hesitation, but a conscious decision to disable the radar systems and sensors with which the Iranian regime controls the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil is once again flowing through the Strait of Hormuz

In fact, the Americans claim that the Iranian clerics have less control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to them, 15 to 20 oil tankers pass through the strait every day - without the Iranian clerics being able to do anything decisive against them.

According to US President Trump, up to 10 million barrels of oil pass through the strait overnight – about half the amount that was transported daily through the strait before the war.

On Tuesday, Trump also declared that the US Navy had cleared or detonated all mines in international waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had been informed that any ship or boat that laid new mines would be immediately destroyed, Trump said.

Iran's economy is in its worst state ever

On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new offensive on the economic front and called it an "economic D-Day" and the "final phase" of the war.

The Iranian regime must, under a new operation called “Economic Outcast,” be forced to make concessions – or be overthrown.

Writing in the Financial Times, Bessent said that Iran's economy "has never been as weak" as it is now, while inflation is also among the highest ever recorded.

Although the Trump administration, with the new sanctions, dares not also target China because of its trade with Iran, the Iranian rial fell to an all-time low after the announcement.

Optimists about war with Iran, such as Mark Dubowitz of the FDD think tank, believe that the Iranian regime will collapse in the medium term.

Leaders in Tehran, he writes in X, already know about the regime's existential crisis – and that millions of Iranians could take to the streets again.

But skeptics warn

The American Institute for the Study of War tries to temper this enthusiasm. According to it, there is no sign that economic pressure has changed the recalcitrant stance of hardliners in Tehran.

Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz from the INSS institute, who had previously criticized the course of the war, warns even more clearly.

The more often US government representatives speak publicly about overthrowing the regime, the more it strengthens Iranian clerics' suspicion that Washington does not actually want a deal, but the end of the Islamic Republic.

If there is no diplomatic way out, then the incentive is not capitulation, but escalation of the conflict.


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