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The EU's difficult decision on Ukraine: How Orban was "broken" by Giorgia Meloni

2024-02-02 22:09:00Fokus SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The EU's difficult decision on Ukraine: How Orban was "broken" by
Orban and Meloni

"Just when he thought he was out, they pulled him in", with this quote from "The Godfather III" begins an article in Politico about the "crush" of Orban's resistance to the aid pact in Ukraine.

It took a months-long charm offensive by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and a bit of appeasement offered by the French for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to agree to vote for a $50 billion aid package for Ukraine, writes Politico.

Meloni held talks with Orban because of their long relationship, two diplomats from countries that do not share her far-right political views said. "She tried several times to be the link between him and the other leaders and it seems that this time she succeeded," said one of the diplomats.

The decision – taken at a summit in Brussels on Thursday, February 1 – was crucial for EU leaders who wanted to show support for Ukraine by demonstrating that they were able to control the Hungarian rebellion.

Orban has repeatedly threatened to use tactical vetoes on a number of European issues to extract money from the EU.

A turning point

EU leaders announced the historic move at a time when US aid to Ukraine has been stalled in Congress for months and Ukraine needs a vital injection of cash in its stalled war with Russia.

"This sends an important signal to the US as well," Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said in the leaders' chamber after reaching the agreement, according to two officials familiar with the discussion who, like others in this article, spoke on condition of anonymity.

Going into Thursday's meeting, the leaders stressed that while a deal without Hungary was possible, it would signal to Russia a lack of European unity. "There is only one show in town today and that includes all 27," Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Thursday morning before the deal was announced.

People close to Meloni said she began her diplomatic work months ago, with talks and meetings involving various ministers and officials, even before the 27 leaders failed to reach an agreement on aid to Ukraine in December because Orban did not would support him.

And on Wednesday night, embassies worked late into the night to ensure Orbán's success. Meloni stepped up her efforts this week, speaking to Orban on the phone and meeting him at Brussels' gorgeous Amigo hotel for an hour-long chat and again on Thursday morning before the meeting began.

On Wednesday night, French President Emmanuel Macron also met with Orban, after spending weeks focused on building bridges with him. Earlier this month, he tried to woo the Hungarian leader over lunch at the Elysée. During that lunch, Macron asked Orbán to outline his vision for how to better integrate the EU's eastern countries.

Macron's leading role

Macron played a key role in these negotiations, the French pointed out, and this was echoed by non-French officials.

"He never wanted to antagonize Orban, he wanted to win him over. It's an approach that is paying off today," said someone close to the French president.

Those charm offensives allowed European Council President Charles Michel to kick off the summit by announcing the long-awaited deal, an official familiar with the discussion in the room said.

Michel skipped the formalities, quickly laying out the details of the deal with Orbán, which neither leader objected to, including minor concessions to Hungary. An annual debate on the aid package and "if necessary" a review every two years "would allow Orban to save face at home," an EU diplomat said.

Hungary quickly portrayed the result as a victory for Budapest. Orbán's political director, Balázs Orbán - who is not related to the Hungarian prime minister - argued that Budapest got what it wanted from the summit.

"At the end of the first year, the aid to Ukraine must be renegotiated and at the end of the second year, the whole issue will be reconsidered in the context of the EU budget for the next period," wrote Balázs Orbán in X. The President of The European Commission's Ursula von der Leyen stressed that no additional concessions were given to Orbán, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did the same at the press conference after the summit.

Even more important than Budapest's victory was the addition of a sentence to the text referring to previous summit conclusions, which guarantee that the way the European Commission assesses the rule of law in Hungary is fair and objective.

This was done to restore the deep distrust that Budapest has towards the Commission regarding the payment of money to Hungary. "Orbán has been given an obligation to be treated fairly," said an EU diplomat.

Diplomats and officials said Orbán simply had to surrender to avoid a major political crisis. And before Thursday's announcement, leaders weren't shy about letting Hungary know who's in charge.

"Hungary needs Europe. You should also see what Hungary gets by belonging to Europe," said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas entering the meeting, writes Politico.


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